Expectations are high for the Orlando Magic after reaching the playoffs last year behind a stifling defense, and they should get a good early test tonight with the Miami Heat healthy and trying to prove they belong in any conversation about the Top 6 in the East.
My Magic vs. Heat predictions point to a physical scrap between division rivals, and my NBA picks are headlined by a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate who’s poised for his best scoring year yet.
Magic vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Bam Adebayo Over 25.5 points + rebounds (-125 at BetMGM)
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My analysis
Pat Riley didn’t hold back this offseason. While the Miami Heat president’s blunt comments about Jimmy Butler grabbed the headlines, Bam Adebayo wasn’t spared either.
The message from Riley was simple: You have to be better.
Adebayo is coming off a solid year in which he averaged 19.3 ppg and 10.4 rpg, but I expect Riley to get his wish here, with Bam taking his production up another notch.
The uptick may not typically come on the boards, where Adebayo has steadily averaged at least nine rebounds per game in each of the past five seasons.
That said, I like his chances of a big haul here against an Orlando Magic team that ranked in the bottom third of the NBA in points per game and 3-point percentage last season.
But Adebayo’s scoring is the stat to watch. He flirted with more 3-point attempts down the stretch last year, including a stretch of 14-for-28 from downtown, and he should benefit from having the playmaking trio of Butler, Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier healthy to start the year.
If this version of the Heat has one more deep playoff run in it, Adebayo needs to tap into his All-NBA upside — and I’m wagering on a dominant start tonight with the Over on this points + rebounds prop.
Magic vs Heat same-game parlay (SGP)
Bam Adebayo Over 26.5 points + rebounds
Under 208.5
Wendell Carter Jr. Under 7.5 rebounds
It’s tough to find a matchup that’s likelier to be dominated by defense than this one. These teams were tied for third in fewest points allowed per game last season (108.4), and that feels like a recipe for a low-scoring rockfight tonight.
The Heat cashed in the Under in 37 of their final 59 games last season, as Erik Spoelstra leaned even further into defense to keep his team afloat.
The Under was 48-40-1 for the Magic last year, including the playoffs, and the combination of Jalen Suggs and newcomer Kentavius Caldwell-Pope should make life miserable for the Heat on the perimeter.
I’ve picked Adebayo to be busy on the boards, but I’m fading the rebounds prop for counterpart Wendell Carter Jr.
Though Carter Jr. will see plenty of Adebayo in the paint, he only averaged 6.9 rpg last season, and his 25.6 mpg was the lowest mark of his time in Orlando.
The Magic have the luxury of a deep roster, with Mo Wagner and Jonathan Isaac among the frontcourt options for Jamahl Mosley off the bench, and that could nudge Carter Jr. towards the Under on this prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Magic vs Heat odds
Magic vs Heat live odds
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Magic vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Orlando +2 | Miami -2
- Moneyline: Orlando +110 | Miami -122
- Over/Under: Over 209.5 | Under 209.5
Magic vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Heat enter as narrow favorites and they’ve posted a 7-3 mark in their past 10 matchups against the Magic, including winning four of the last five contests.
- Orlando is 55-34 ATS in its last 89 games but went 18-23 overall on the road in the 2023-24 season.
- Miami has only hit the 4Q Over in 19 of its past 59 games, and the hosts still have to iron out their rotation after such an injury-plagued end to last year.
- Franz Wagner is coming off a miserable season from downtown, making a career-worst 28% of his 3-pointers, and the Magic offense is in trouble if he can’t get back on track.
Magic vs Heat trend
The Heat will hope that tonight’s unveiling of the Pat Riley Court improves their home form. Miami was just over .500 at Kaseya Center last season, as well as 17-27 ATS. Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Heat.
Magic vs Heat game info
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-23-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN Florida, FDSN Sun |
Magic vs Heat latest injuries
Magic: None.
Heat: J. Richardson (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury report.
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