Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prop Picks and Best Bets: Naz Reid Steps Up

Prop bet #1: Good Reids

NAZ REID!

When the Minnesota Timberwolves played the Denver Nuggets in the previous round, the Nuggets clogged the lane, threw a ton of bodies at Anthony Edwards, and sent doubles at Karl-Anthony Towns. The Timberwolves needed their shooters to make open looks to help create space. However, the difference between the Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks is that once Edwards and Towns were able to get in the lane, they could finish around the basket. That will be much more challenging in this series, as the Mavericks have excellent rim protection, which will put even more pressure on the Timberwolves shooters, especially Reid.

Reid should find himself open from beyond the arc quite often in this series, whether it's because Luka Doncic is his primary defender or the Mavericks opt for some zone defense. The 3-point attempts should be there for Reid, as the defensive attention will be on Edwards and Towns. I thought about betting on Reid over his threes made total, but I prefer the points because I think he can exploit smaller players on the Mavericks defense.

Yes, the Mavericks have excellent rim protection in Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively, but they only play one of them at a time. Gafford and Lively should spend the majority of their time as the primary defenders on Rudy Gobert, which means Reid will consistently have a size advantage in his matchup. The 3-ball will always be there for Reid, but we could see the Timberwolves run some actions where Reid can throw his weight around and bully his way to the rim, especially if Doncic is guarding him.

Reid is projected to score 10.9 points, which allows us to price the Over 9.5 points at -139, but it is available at Pinnacle for -116.

Naz Reid prop: Over 9.5 points (-116 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #2: Mr. Jones and you

I just watched Derrick Jones Jr. score 22 points in 40 minutes in Game 6 on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder, yet there's no adjustment to his points prop heading into this series. Game 6 wasn't a fluke, either. It was Jones' third straight game of 17 or more points, yet his total is still at 8.5, a number that he was trading at in the Los Angeles Clippers series.

Jones may have been a role player averaging around 24 minutes per game in the regular season, but that is not his role for this Mavericks team anymore. He is someone Jason Kidd trusts, and he is going to have a very important job against the Timberwolves.

Jones is the Mavs' best perimeter defender and should be the primary defender on Ant. Not only will Jones play a big role in slowing Edwards, but the Timberwolves love to score in the paint, and Jones is someone who can meet you at the rim and block a shot from one of Minnesota's bigs as a help defender. His defensive prowess will help keep his minutes secure.

On the offensive end, Jones has been knocking down corner triples, and they are going to need this from him against the Timberwolves defense. When Doncic or Kyrie Irving get in the lane, they are going to be met by help defenders with positional size like Towns or Jaden McDaniels. The lob over the top won’t be there like it was against the Thunder because Gobert will be playing free safety. Both of the Mavericks' guards will be looking to kick out to their shooters, and Jones will be the beneficiary.

The Timberwolves also have a ton of size and excellent rim protection, so to score in the lane, the Mavs need someone who can play above the rim or have athletic finishes around it, and that's Jones. 

Jones is projected to score 9.9 points, which can be priced at -142 to go Over 8.5, but it is available at Pinnacle for -118.

Derrick Jones Jr. prop: Over 8.5 points (-118 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #3: Making the most of limited minutes

Kyle Anderson hasn't seen big minutes in these NBA Playoffs, but this is a different series with different matchups, and with it being Game 1, both coaches will be trying out different strategies. Do I expect Anderson to see big minutes? No, but since his minutes have been down the last several games, we also don't need many to establish an edge on the current price for his assists prop.

We really only need him to play 12 minutes. That's not a lot, especially when you consider it's Game 1 at home and the Timberwolves are favored.

There are a couple of basketball reasons why I think we could see these minutes and hopefully more. For one, the Mavericks have played zone against the Timberwolves in the past, and Anderson can be placed in the middle of that zone to facilitate. This could lead to increased minutes and more potential assists.

The Mavericks also have excellent rim protection, and Anderson is someone who can weave his way through the lane methodically, draw the attention of certain defenders, and then pass it off to someone else to finish at the rim.

Anderson's 7-foot-3 wingspan, which could be useful in their team defense against Doncic, is another strength. Doncic is extremely smart and likes to use his size to shoot over his defenders. Anderson moves at Doncic's speed, won't take the bait on a lot of his foul shot hunting, and his wingspan could help disrupt some shots.

Anderson is projected to drop 2.2 assists, allowing us to price the Over 1.5 at -162, but it is available at bet365 for -115.

Kyle Anderson prop: Over 1.5 assists (-115 at bet365)