Nuggets vs Jazz Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Markkanen is Money at Home

The defending champion Denver Nuggets head to Salt Lake City on Wednesday, January 10 to take on the Utah Jazz. A month ago that might have seemed like an easy win for Denver, but Will Hardy & Co. have transformed a tanking Utah season into one threatening to make the Play-In. 

While NBA odds still favor Denver it will take a more complete performance on both ends than they’ve been giving over the past two weeks to come away with a win.

My NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Jazz believe Lauri Markkanen’s overall production is being criminally undervalued.

Nuggets vs Jazz odds

Nuggets vs Jazz predictions

There have been rumors out there that Danny Ainge is willing to part with All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen for the right price. Now, the right price appears to be every draft pick and swap a team can offer, a stable of prospects, and the general manager’s firstborn son for good measure, but the Utah Jazz would still be foolish to do it.

Markkanen is the rare star who is completely fungible. That is to say, you can put Lauri in just about any situation and he’ll find a way to be additive with his skillset. Markkanen is good with the ball in his hands, but he’s downright elite without it. That makes him more dependent on his teammates making plays, but the Jazz are cobbling together enough playmaking from the likes of Collin Sexton, Kris Dunn, and Kelly Olynyk to unlock Lauri off the ball.

It also allows him to be hyper-efficient. Most star players don’t get to take many corner threes, and while Lauri has certainly taken more from above the break, he’s still at 21-for-45 from the corner this season (47%). For comparison, a player like Luka Doncic, who has the ball all the time, has taken just 14 this season per Cleaning the Glass.

Markkanen isn’t a shooting specialist, however. He’s strong at scoring in and around the basket but doesn’t bog down the offense by pounding the ball and rarely takes long mid-range shots. He scores 1.58 points per possession off cuts, just fractions worse than Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James. That contributes to him shooting a sterling 77% at the rim and, taken alongside his shooting ability, makes him perhaps the NBA’s best play-finisher.

The Denver Nuggets are not an elite defensive team, and their biggest weakness is that they allow many shots at the basket. Lauri is a tough cover because he has the size of a big while moving around the perimeter like a wing. Aaron Gordon is a great defender, but he’s not well suited to chasing Markkanen off screens all game.

Michael Porter Jr., for his part, has made big strides as an on-ball defender and rebounder. But the Jazz do a great job of layering multiple actions into an attack that forces mental mistakes and blown coverages. Markkanen has a keen idea of when to cut and attack his opponent to take advantage of any lapse in defensive intensity.

Lauri is averaging 24.2 points over his last 10 and he’s doing it on 64.1% true shooting. But it's his all-around game that’s truly clicking in that stretch.

As I’ve written about before, Markkanen is also a great rebounder for a wing. Per Cleaning the Glass, he ranks in the 90th percentile as an offensive rebounder and the 88th percentile on the defensive glass. He’s averaging 8.9 boards over his last ten games and has 27 combined over his last two.

While he’s not a primary playmaker by any means, he’s still hitting 2.3 assists over his last 10 as well.

Altogether, Markkanen is averaging 35.4 collective points, rebounds, and assists over his last 10 games and has cleared this prop easily in seven of those contests. These odds seem far too low given his overall production and Denver’s permeable interior defense.

My best bet: Lauri Markkanen Over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at SIA)

Nuggets vs Jazz same-game parlay

Lauri Markkanen Over 29.5 points + rebounds

Jazz +7

Kris Dunn Over 3.5 assists

+278 at DraftKings

As my exact best bet isn’t available for my same-game parlay, I’m instead leading off with Markkanen Over 29.5 points and rebounds to pair with a Jazz cover and Dunn Over 3.5 assists.

Like the Nuggets, the Jazz have an elite homecourt advantage. They’re 12-4 against the spread at home on the season and, per Cleaning the Glass, they’ve had a +10.9-spread differential over the last two weeks.

They’ve also been the ninth-best offense and 12th-best defense in that time. That might not sound like much, but it’s good enough for a +4.8-point differential. Only six teams in the NBA have a point differential as high or better for the entire season so far.

Dunn has a reputation as a defensive player and that is what gets him on the court. But he’s shown flashes of growth as a playmaker of late. Dunn finished the game against the Milwaukee Bucks with 13 assists and has had four or more in four of his last five.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nuggets vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis

Wednesday’s spread opened between -6.5 and -7.5 favoring the Nuggets but is mostly available between -6.5 and -7 at the time of writing. 

The Jazz are on a hell of a run. They looked like one of the NBA’s bottom feeders to open the season, still reeling after the loss of Mike Conley at last year’s trade deadline. They’re still ranked in the Bottom 10 on both sides of the ball for the season, but they’ve played much better than that for weeks now. 

Utah has won 11 of its last 15 games and has signature road wins against the Philadelphia 76ers and the Bucks in that time. The Jazz are 8-2 against the spread over their last 10 games.

The Nuggets are in more flux. They made a heroic comeback to beat the Golden State Warriors (and send Steph Curry into a mouthguard-chewing frenzy) but also got hammered by the Oklahoma City Thunder and blew a late lead against the Orlando Magic. They’re just 7-12 ATS on the road this season.

As has often been the case, they’re searching for consistency on the defensive end while still systematically picking opponents apart on offense. There is still no good answer to the Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray pick-and-roll, and I don’t expect the Jazz to suddenly find one. 

Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game, with Wednesday’s total climbing as high as 238 before falling to where it’s now largely available at 237.5 at most sportsbooks. 

The Jazz and Nuggets are unusual because they both tend to play big, but both are more gifted offensively than teams that try to do so typically are. Nobody is a good matchup for Jokic, but the Jazz at least have a defensive ace at the center position in Walker Kessler, who will make his presence known, and multiple other bodies to throw in his path if foul trouble becomes an issue. 

The sheer amount of shooting that both teams can put out without compromising on size makes me lean Over, but not strongly enough for me to play it at this number.

Nuggets vs Jazz betting trend to know

The Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Jazz.

Nuggets vs Jazz game info

Nuggets vs Jazz latest injuries

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