The Nuggets were blown out by the Knicks on Monday, but they’re monster favorites on the road at Utah tonight. Can Denver get back in the win column with a bounce-back performance?
My Nuggets vs. Jazz predictions will eat the large point spread while looking at a Denver superstar who might not need a huge game and a veteran who’s been turning back the clock for an SGP play on Wednesday, November 27.
Nuggets vs Jazz prediction
My best bet
Nuggets -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is quite the large spread, but we are just a day away from Thanksgiving, so it feels appropriate to bet on the Denver Nuggets feasting. Despite Denver’s poor performance against the spread overall, this is a game in which the Nuggets can win by double digits.
The Nuggets won last season’s head-to-head series with the Utah Jazz 3-1 and covered in two of them. This season, the teams met on November 2, and Denver won 129-103 at home. Over the last three head-to-heads, Denver won and covered in all of them and won by 16, 21, and 26.
Denver has covered in four of seven games on the road this season, and the Nuggets are 2-1 ATS as the road favorite. Denver is getting spotted a lot of points on the road, but the Jazz are unlikely to have top scorer Lauri Markkanen available after he left Tuesday’s loss to San Antonio in the fourth quarter with a left knee contusion.
In three games without Markkanen this season, the Jazz are 1-2 straight-up with losses of 18 and 26. Last season, the Jazz were -3.9 in games played with Markkanen and -9.6 in games without him. That included a +4.5 mark at home with Markkanen and a -4.2 mark at home without him.
Utah is already at a disadvantage at home, as the team is -10.3 at Delta Center compared to -8.5 on the road. Denver is +2.7 on the road and -0.5 at home.
My NBA picks are backing the road team to handle their business against a Jazz team that will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back and missing its star forward.
Nuggets vs Jazz same-game parlay
Nuggets -9.5
Nikola Jokic Under 52.5 points + rebounds + assists
Russell Westbrook Over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists
Nikola Jokic has been tremendous this season, averaging 54 PRAs and leading the way as the favorite in the NBA MVP odds. However, he hasn’t racked up counting stats at a monster rate against Utah.
Jokic put up exactly 52 PRAs against the Jazz in his first meeting this season, extending his streak to six straight games without hitting the Over against this team. Over his last 10 against Utah, Jokic has averaged 43.4 PRAs and hit the Over only twice. I’m projecting a comfortable win for Denver, which makes me lean Under for Jokic.
Since I’m taking the Under with Jokic, I’ll take the Over with Russell Westbrook, who could see additional run if this game gets out of hand.
He’s been in rare form over his last four games, averaging 30.6 PRAs in 27.3 minutes per game. Prior to that stellar run, he averaged 19.9 PRAs across 24.2 minutes, and on the season overall, he’s averaged 22.6.
Westy has been slightly better on the road (23.9) than at home (22.1), and I’m expecting his hot streak to continue. He’s hit the Over in six games this season, including three of his last four with one game of exactly 21 PRAs. Utah has allowed the fourth-most points and 10th-most assists this season, setting Westbrook up nicely to cash this prop.
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Nuggets vs Jazz odds
Nuggets vs Jazz live odds
Nuggets vs Jazz opening odds
- Spread: Denver -9.5 (-110) | Utah +9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver -425 | Utah +325
- Over/Under: Over 231 (-110) | Under 231 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver has won and covered in just two of its last six, bringing the team’s records to 9-7 straight up and 6-9-1 ATS.
- Utah is 1-5 straight up and 3-3 ATS across its last six, and the team is 4-13 straight up and 8-9 ATS.
- The Nuggets have hit the Over in 11 of 16 games this season, including three of their last six.
- The Jazz have hit the Over in four of their last six, bringing the team’s record to 8-9 to the Under.
Nuggets vs Jazz trend
The Nuggets have won the last three head-to-heads with the Jazz overall by an average of 21 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Jazz.
How to watch Nuggets vs Jazz
| Location: | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Altitude 2, KJZZ |
Nuggets vs Jazz latest injuries
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