The Denver Nuggets are tied for the top seed in the Western Conference with the Timberwolves but do not possess the tiebreaker, meaning they will need some pivotal wins in their last four games to secure the top spot.
Tonight they travel to take on the Utah Jazz who are losers of 12 straight but have managed to beat the Nuggets before this season.
Will Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets take care of business? Or can the Jazz surprise the Nuggets once again?
Continue reading as I offer my best free NBA picks for Nuggets vs. Jazz predictions on Tuesday, April 9.
Nuggets vs Jazz predictions
My best bet
Jazz +15 (-108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Denver Nuggets are doing the best they can to secure the Western Conference's top seed, but still need some key wins in their last four regular season games. That starts tonight against the Utah Jazz, who are eliminated from playoff contention and losers of 12 straight.
While they are winners of three of their last four and are 18-5 spanning since mid-February, they haven't been nearly as great on the spread side of things. In their last 11 games (all of which they have been the favorite in) they have managed to cover just four times.
They haven't been the greatest either as large favorites, managing to just go 8-11 (42.1%) against the spread as a double-digit favorite this year. Things have been even particularly worse in that regard in the higher spreads of that range, having gone just 3-5 (37.5%) against the spread when favored by 13 or more points.
This is a Utah team that has managed to go 2-1 against the spread against this Denver team so far this year and has even won a game straight up as well.
Plus Denver is on the first leg of a back-to-back with tomorrow bringing them a massive matchup against the top-seeded Timberwolves, who currently possess the tiebreaker over the Nuggets as they have a 2-1 lead in their season series.
It's not hard to imagine the Nuggets pulling starters a tad early in the fourth if the win has been secured, leaving late room for the Jazz to get inside the number.
Nuggets vs Jazz same-game parlay
Jazz +15
Nikola Jokic Under 13.5 rebounds
Jamal Murray Under 19.5 points
If we expect the Nuggets to try to cruise to a win or pull their foot off the pedal late, it may make sense to target Nikola Jokic's unders. In particular, it makes sense to look at rebounding given that the Jazz already rank seventh-best in limiting opposing centers on the glass.
Jamal Murray on the other hand is also worth looking at but more from an injury perspective. The star guard just returned from injury on a minutes restriction (16 points in 21 minutes on Saturday) and he may be someone the coaching staff specifically has in mind to give an easier load tonight given that they will need him for tomorrow's pivotal matchup.
Despite that, his point total for tonight (19.5) is set at a mark that he managed to hit just twice in the five games he played prior to his absence.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nuggets vs Jazz odds
Nuggets vs Jazz live odds
Nuggets vs Jazz opening odds
- Spread: Denver -13.5 | Utah +13.5
- Moneyline: Denver -950 | Utah +689
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Nuggets vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver has gone a staggering 46-32 to the Under this year, good for the highest rate of Unders on the year at 59.0%. That rate even increases a touch higher as road favorites, having gone 18-11 that way this year (62.1%).
- They have gone Under in four of their last six, and have not gone Over a total at tonight's number (225) since March 11.
- Utah, despite their abysmal win-loss record, has managed to go 38-39-1 against the spread this year - good for around league average. And as home underdogs they've gone 14-11, good for a 56.0% cover rate in that split that is fourth-best among teams that have played 10+ games in that split.
Nuggets vs Jazz trend
Utah has gone 43-32-3 to the Over this year, and their 57.3% Over rate is the highest in the league this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Jazz.
Nuggets vs Jazz game info
| Location: | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-9-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KJZZ, Altitude |
Nuggets vs Jazz latest injuries
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