The Denver Nuggets will travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks, and I've searched through the NBA odds to find you my favorite wager.
The Knicks are in for a massive challenge defending Nikola Jokic, as their frontcourt is dealing with injuries. New York will have to adjust its defensive coverages to guard Joker, but one thing remains the same: O.G. Anunoby is going to be disruptive on the defensive end.
Find out how Anunoby and the injuries on New York are affecting what I'm backing in my free NBA picks for the Nuggets vs. Knicks on January 25.
Nuggets vs Knicks odds
Nuggets vs Knicks predictions
A game against the Denver Nuggets is why you make the trade for O.G. Anunoby if you're the New York Knicks.
Nikola Jokic is almost impossible to stop on the basketball court, but if you can take away Jamal Murray, that's a game changer.
With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. on the wings, the Knicks will be able to use their best defender, Anunoby, at the point of attack on Murray. Donte DiVincenzo will be undersized guarding Porter, but MPJ isn't someone who's going to take him down into the post. And if he does, that's why you have Josh Hart on the bench.
Murray just dropped 31 points against the Pacers on Tuesday, which is helping keep his total at an elevated number of 24.5. Just six games ago, Murray was trading at a total of 21.5 points. I mean, 31 points against Indiana is impressive, but this is Club Thibs we're talking about here.
I'm not saying Murray won't score, but when you have an elevated total and a defender such as Anunoby, that should be disruptive enough to the point where it keeps the Denver guard Under his total of 24.5.
Murray doesn't have an offensive advantage on Thursday: that belongs to Jokic and ultimately Porter. With Isaiah Hartenstein questionable and the Knicks already down Mitchell Robinson, Joker will have an advantage against Jericho Sims, which will result in open shots for Porter as help defense shifts towards Jokic.
The defense of O.G. and an offensive strategy of getting the ball to the Nuggets' big man in a mismatch should turn Murray more into a facilitator than a scorer, and that is why I like the Under on his points prop at 24.5. Murray is projected to score 22.8 points on Thursday, allowing us to price the Under 24.5 points at -161.
My best bet: Jamal Murray Under 24.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Nuggets vs Knicks same-game parlay
Jamal Murray Under 24.5 points
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 made threes
Michael Porter Jr. Over 13.5 points
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I also placed a straight bet on Porter Jr. to hit three-plus from deep, and you can read that breakdown in my daily NBA player props article. All of these bets are connected to how I believe the Knicks will defend the Nuggets and what matchups they'll deploy.
With Anunoby on Murray, Denver's PG will run into some scenarios where O.G. forces him to pass instead of shoot. You should also see help defense shifting Jokic's way to help protect Sims, which would lead to wide-open shots from beyond the arc for MPJ.
I also like the Over on Porter's points prop. I just thought there was a bigger probability gap on the threes made prop, which is why I placed a straight bet on that market instead.
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Nuggets vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
The Nuggets opened as a 2.5-point road favorite on Thursday over the Knicks at FanDuel, and while the spread did drop to Denver -1.5 at one point, it's now back to the opening line.
Keep an eye on the juice when betting on this spread as a lot of the sportsbooks have the same number of Nuggets -2.5, but the juice really varies from sportsbook to sportsbook. Some shops are trading this spread with increased juice on Denver, while others have increased juice on the Knicks.
The total opened at 225.5 at DraftKings, and we've seen it drop 3.5 points down to 222. It's been a steady decline in the number with really no resistance moving it back towards the Over. For that reason, I wouldn't be surprised if we see this number keep dropping down to 221.5 and further.
Nuggets vs Knicks betting trend to know
The Nuggets have hit the moneyline in 48 of their last 66 games (+20.25 Units / 11% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Knicks.
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Nuggets vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, January 25, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Altitude, MSG |
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