Two team in the thick of the playoff race will face off on Friday night as the Miami Heat host the Indiana Pacers at the Kaseya Center.
These teams have been scoring a lot of points since the All-Star break, and I’ll be taking the Over tonight in my Pacers vs. Heat predictions.
Let’s take a closer look at tonight’s matchup in my free NBA picks for Friday, February 28.
Pacers vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Over 225.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Indiana Pacers have been playing above tonight’s total all season long, but the scoring has gone to a new level this month. Indiana has played to totals of 230+ points in seven of their last eight games, leaning into its fast-paced style that has seen the Pacers and their opponents both lighting up the scoreboard.
Indiana is averaging 121 ppg over this stretch, but is also allowing the opposition to put up 116.8 ppg in return. It’s a style that seems to be working well for the Pacers, who have won four of their last five games as they look to secure a playoff spot, but it’s even more predictably been keeping totals high for bettors. And while oddsmakers have adjusted for some of these games, they haven’t done so tonight, where we’re looking at a modest Over/Under of 225.5.
That’s probably because of how the Miami Heat have generally played this season. Miami has some of the slowest pace metrics in the NBA this season, and has been solid on defense, a combination – combined with an inconsistent offense – that has led to plenty of sub-200 totals on the season. But over the past two weeks, the Heat have hit the Over in four of their last five games, all at numbers that would have easily gone above tonight’s total.
Miami’s offensive resurgence hasn’t come on the back of leading scorer Tyler Herro (24.0 ppg), who has been up and down in recent weeks. However, he’s been getting more support, particularly from center Bam Adebayo (16.9 ppg), as well as recent addition Andrew Wiggins, who is averaging 19.2 ppg since being acquired from the Golden State Warriors.
A bit more offensive balance could go a long way for Miami, which will also benefit from getting to play most of its remaining games at home. And with Indiana likely to push the pace tonight, the Heat won’t have to do much to come in well above their season average of 110.0 ppg. Combined with a typical performance from the Pacers, that should be more than enough to race past the total. I’m taking the Over.
Pacers vs Heat same-game parlay
Over 225.5
Heat +4.5
Tyrese Haliburton Over 18.5 points
Along with the Over, I’m also taking the Heat to cover in my same-game parlay for tonight’s game. The Heat are playing a bit better at home, and while I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting on Miami to win outright, I think 4.5 points is just a bit too much to be giving to a competent team that is coming off a 22-point win at home on Wednesday.
Looking for a player prop to round out my parlay, I’m going to move to the Pacers and look for Tyrese Haliburton to hit the Over on his scoring total. Haliburton has now gone for 19+ points in each of his last five games, and is averaging 18.8 ppg for the month of February – even when factoring in a game in which he didn’t score. In a high-scoring game, I see no reason why he won’t keep that streak going tonight.
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Pacers vs Heat odds
Pacers vs Heat live odds
Pacers vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Indiana -4.5 (-110) | Miami +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana -190 | Miami +160
- Over/Under: Over 224 (-110) | Under 224 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- Indiana is a dead even 28-28-1 against the spread this year, with Miami holding a 23-33-1 ATS mark on the season.
- The Pacers are 2-1 against the Heat this year, and also have a 2-1 ATS mark in those matchups.
- The Over has the edge for both teams, going 31-26 in Miami’s games and holding a similar 31-24-2 advantage when Indiana plays.
- The Heat are averaging a total of 220.6 ppg this season, while the Pacers are playing to an average total of 231.6 ppg.
Pacers vs Heat trend
The Over is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Heat.
How to watch Pacers vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Date | Friday, 2-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-Indiana, FanDuel Sports Network-SU |
Pacers vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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