The Indiana Pacers make the trip to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinal showdown against the New York Knicks tonight after drawing even at two games apiece.
My Pacers vs. Knicks predictions lean towards Aaron Nesmith's points prop after he played a significant role in helping Indiana win both games at home.
Find out why I'm backing Nesmith to hit the Over on 9.5 points in my free NBA picks on Tuesday, May 14th.
Pacers vs Knicks prediction
My best bet
Aaron Nesmith Over 9.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
When the Indiana Pacers returned home from the two games at Madison Square Garden down 0-2 in the series, they needed to slow Jalen Brunson down. Brunson scored 43 and 29 in Games 1 and 2, respectively, with Andrew Nembhard as his primary defender. The 29 in Game 2 were also more impactful than they appeared because Brunson missed some time in the second quarter with a foot injury.
In Game 3, Rick Carlisle made the switch and designated Aaron Nesmith as Brunson's chief tormentor. Nesmith isn't as fast as Nembhard on the perimeter, but his 6-foot-10 wingspan was more disruptive to Brunson's offensive game. Nesmith held Brunson to 26 points on 26 field-goal attempts in Game 3. Carlisle returned to Nesmith as the primary defender in Game 4, and Brunson was held under 20 points for the first time in these NBA Playoffs.
Nesmith's effectiveness in this role creates a scenario where his minutes are very secure and should be elevated. The thing is, Nesmith isn't fully being priced this way because of the blowout in Game 4 where he only played 24 minutes, compared to a tighter Game 3 when he played 38 minutes.
In order to establish a nice edge on the Over 9.5 (-120), we need around 32 minutes from Nesmith. With the role change and another blowout unlikely at MSG, I can't see Nesmith coming up short in usage. If anything, I think he eclipses that number easily, but we aren't banking on it to establish our edge.
The other reason that I like Nesmith is because of the injuries and the Knicks' lack of rim protection. When Isaiah Hartenstein heads to the bench and Precious Achiuwa is the center, the lane opens up for someone like Nesmith who can drive to the rim and finish in the paint. This looks much different for Nesmith if Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunoby are healthy. Nesmith shoots 42% from deep. Those shots will always be there for him, but he should have an easier time finishing in the paint against this version of the Knicks roster.
Nesmith is projected to score 11.9 points, which allows us to price the Over 9.5 points at -178, but it is available at DraftKings at -120.
Pacers vs Knicks same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Nesmith Over 9.5 points
Aaron Nesmith Over 1.5 threes
Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 assists
While two 3-pointers would go a long way in helping us reach Over 9.5 points, I added it more because of the third leg.
Tyrese Haliburton sets Nesmith up for a lot of his 3-pointers, so if he can knock down some threes, there's a good chance it will directly affect Haliburton's ability to get Over 8.5 assists.
Not only will Nesmith knocking down some 3-pointers help with Haliburton's assists prop, but it will obviously help with Nesmith's points prop. These three bets are extremely correlated because of how the Pacers' offense flows.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pacers vs Knicks odds
Pacers vs Knicks live odds
Get the latest Pacers vs Knicks NBA playoff odds for Game 5.
Pacers vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +2.5 | New York -2.5
- Moneyline: Indiana +118 | New York -138
- Over/Under: Over 217.5 | Under 217.5
Pacers vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Knicks opened as a 2.5-point favorite at FanDuel and are now trading at -2.
- The Knicks were a 5.5-point favorite when they played at Madison Square Garden in Game 2 and OG Anunoby was healthy.
- The total opened at 217.5 at FanDuel and has moved half a point to the Under, now trading at 217.
- We did see the total touch as low as 215.5 at FanDuel, but it met with some resistance at this number and was bet back up to 217.
Pacers vs Knicks trend
The Indiana Pacers have hit the Team Total Over in 54 of their last 89 games (+15.25 Units / 15% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Knicks.
Pacers vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Pacers vs Knicks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
