Pelicans vs 76ers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Sixers Struggle Keeping Up With Jones

The Philadelphia 76ers are in survival mode. 

While they once threatened to compete for the No.2 seed in the Eastern Conference, Joel Embiid’s injury has them in freefall. Tyrese Maxey is now also missing time due to a concussion, and they face the grim prospect of playing a mostly healthy New Orleans Pelicans team on Friday, March 8 without either of their offensive stars.

They’ll be an NBA odds longshot again to win tonight, but if the Sixers want to have any chance of staying out of the play-in bracket they are going to have to win a few of these games with the deck stacked against them.

My NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. 76ers dive deep on the play of Herb Jones, who is showing critical development for New Orleans this season.

Pelicans vs 76ers odds

Pelicans vs 76ers predictions

One of the key developments for the New Orleans Pelicans this year has been the growth in the offensive game of Herb Jones. Jones is already a perennial All-Defense candidate, but now he’s a force to be reckoned with on the other side of the ball as well.

Jones hovered a bit above 33% from behind the arc through his first two seasons. He was serviceable as a shooter, but little more than that, and was an easy choice to help off when picking poisons between Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, or CJ McCollum.

This year, Herb is shooting 43.6% from downtown on a career-high 3.6 attempts per game. While that volume could still stand to tick up more, Jones has gone from potentially ignorable to five-alarm fire when he catches the ball behind the 3-point line.

It isn’t just hot shooting either. Herb’s offensive development jumps off the page in other spots as well. At 58.3% his 2-point percentage is also at career-best levels. By showing a bit more discretion when to attack the basket, he’s increased his efficiency within four feet of the hoop to 69%, about 5% better than last year’s mark. 

He’s attempting fewer low-efficiency midrange jumpers. Almost all of those shot attempts are now threes, and an increasing amount of those are the coveted corner three. He’s also made strides at the charity stripe where he’s up to 85.2%.

His improved shooting has seen him go from the 55th percentile in scoring efficiency among forwards to the 94th percentile per Cleaning the Glass. Now, instead of being a defensive stud that Willie Green has to sacrifice some offense to get in the game, he’s plug and play with any group of Pelicans, at any time, for any style. 

Herb is averaging 13.6 points in his last 10 games and has only scored below 13 points twice in his last 12 games. Despite all this, these Herb Jones odds are projecting him more than three points below that mark. 

My best bet: Herb Jones Over 10.5 points (-130 at bet365)

Pelicans vs 76ers same-game parlay

Herb Jones Over 10.5 points

Pelicans -8.5

76ers Under 108.5 points

+345 at DraftKings

As expected, the 76ers have been struggling without Joel Embiid. They’d shown a bit more fight recently, particularly as Tyrese Maxey grew increasingly comfortable as the No. 1 option, but now he’s out due to a concussion. 

That leaves the 76ers in a dire situation creation-wise, which is why I’m projecting them to have difficulty scoring with my same-game parlay. While there was a time when Tobias Harris was relied on to generate offense as a pseudo-No. 1, those days are clearly in the past. Harris has stepped up in fits and starts for Philadelphia, but all too inconsistently, and he faces a difficult series of defensive matchups against New Orleans.

Life without both Maxey and Embiid is perilous for Philadelphia. They failed when they lost to the injury-ravaged Memphis Grizzlies, also at home, by six on Wednesday. The night before that, they lost by five to the Brooklyn Nets. 

Those teams are both in the Bottom 8 in terms of point differential as measured by Cleaning the Glass. The Pelicans, for all their flaws and imperfect fits, are fifth in the NBA at +5.

The Pelicans are not rock solid. If they were, this line would be safely in the double digits. But they have been wrecking teams in similar spots to the 76ers in recent weeks. They dominated the New York Knicks missing many of their key players 115-92. They blasted the Indiana Pacers 129-102. And they rocked the Toronto Raptors 139-98.

They’re Top-4 on both sides of the ball in the last two weeks to the tune of a +11.6 point differential. The 76ers have fallen all the way to -5.2 in that same span. 

All those teams are dealing with key injuries or absences, and the Pels jumped all over them. What’s left of the 76ers without Embiid, Maxey, and De’Anthony Melton is easily the worst team of that group.

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Pelicans vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has been steadily moving in favor of the Pelicans since it opened at -5.5. At time of writing, it’s risen as high as -9. That movement hasn’t been linear, however, and it’s possible it could dip again before tip off.

The Pelicans may be just 5-5 against the spread in their last 10, but they’re better as a road team. They cover 56.7% of their games on the road and outperform the spread by more than any other team on average in those games at +5.3.

Philadelphia is just 2-5 ATS as home underdogs. Almost all of that is after the Embiid injury of course and is not accounting for the knock-on effects of having to replace Maxey’s production. 

It’s one thing for Kyle Lowry to step into Maxey’s shoes and run the 76ers' offense, it’s another for the person who replaces Lowry to also have to do that for 20 minutes a game. That means a healthy dose of Cameron Payne at the point, who has been playing at below replacement level for a while now.

Friday’s total opened as high as 226.5 and has dropped to as little as 223.5 at some sportsbooks.

The Under is 5-2 when the 76ers are home underdogs. Again, that’s a good proxy for games played at home without Embiid, because Philadelphia were rarely underdogs with the reigning MVP in the lineup.

What the Pels have in bunches that the 76ers do not is size. Without Embiid this is a downright diminutive team, with few players capable of matching up with Ingram, let alone Zion or Jonas Valanciunas. 

The reason I don’t like the total is because there is definite potential for the Pels to just smother the 76ers' offense completely. The 76ers have capable scorers like Buddy Hield and Kelly Oubre Jr., but they are seriously overstretched to be lead offensive options against a team as defensively sound as New Orleans.

Pelicans vs 76ers betting trend to know

The 76ers are 2-5 ATS as home underdogs this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. 76ers.

Pelicans vs 76ers game info

Pelicans vs 76ers latest injuries

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