Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Hield Makes It Rain Against Phoenix

What better way to build your bankroll for this Sunday’s Super Bowl than with some winners in the NBA player prop market? With a jam-packed slate of 12 games, there is no shortage of value to be found this evening.

Tonight, I look to take advantage of the shorthanded Suns for at least one more game, plus one of the Hornets’ biggest weaknesses got worse and that should mean a big night on the glass for Jayson Tatum. Finally, Tyler Herro may be one of the streakiest shooters in the NBA, but no team lets you find your rhythm more than the Rockets.

Here are my best NBA player props for Friday, February 10.

NBA player props for February 10

• Hield Over 3.5 3-pointers
• Tatum Over 8.5 rebounds
• Herro Over 3.5 3-pointers

Picks made on 2/10/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Bet Buddy 

NBA bettors and opposing teams aren’t going to be able to fade the shorthanded Phoenix Suns for much longer. It won’t be long before Kevin Durant makes his debut and the Suns will be on the rise in the Western Conference.

But that’s not the case tonight. Tonight, the Suns will have to play the second half of a back-to-back and attempt to contain one of the best 3-point shooters in the NBA when they visit Buddy Hield and the Indiana Pacers.

Everyone knows how dangerous Hield is from beyond the arc, as the guard is shooting 43% from 3-point range for the season. It may be hard to believe, but Hield has been even hotter lately. The Pacers’ shooting guard is draining 47.9% of his shots from downtown over the last nine games and is coming off a 6-for-12 shooting performance from deep against the Heat.

The Suns are also now without their two best perimeter defenders in Malik Bridges and Cam Johnson, as both were shipped off to Brooklyn in the KD deal.

In their first game without those two in the rotation, the Suns allowed Hawks guards Trae Young and Dejounte Murray to go a combined 7-for-12 from 3-point range.

With the Suns still making the transition to their new roster and playing their second game in as many nights, I’m not sure how they slow down Hield tonight.

Buddy Hield prop: Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (-106)

Crashing the glass

Cue the Michael Jordan laughing at a tablet meme, but I have no idea what the Charlotte Hornets are doing. I mean, besides clearly trying their best to tank for Victor Wembanyama in the upcoming NBA draft.

A roster that was already full of holes got worse following Thursday’s trade deadline, and the most notable departure is center Mason Plumlee. I say this because the Hornets are already one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA and they just got rid of easily their best rebounder.

Because the Hornets take such a high volume of shots and rank dead last in effective field goal percentage, that means there are a lot of rebounds up for grabs in their games.

And it’s no surprise they rank 29th in opponent rebounds per contest. That means it could be a big night on the boards for Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum.

The MVP candidate is averaging 8.7 rebounds per game this season and he’s put even more work on the glass of late, bumping that number up to 10.5 over his last 13 games. He’s also hauled down nine or more boards 11 times over that 13-game stretch.

The Over 8.5 on Tatum’s rebounds looks like a no-brainer tonight.

Jayson Tatum prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (-130)

Herro ball

Tyler Herro is one of the streakiest shooters in the NBA, but when he’s locked in, there aren’t many players more dangerous from beyond the arc. Tonight he’ll get a chance to ply his trade when the Miami Heat host the Houston Rockets on Friday night.

Herro is shooting 37% from 3-point range for the season. But like I said, he’s as streaky as they come.

Take his last 11 games for example.

Since Herro returned from an Achilles injury that cost him three games, he’s been in a bit of a slump. The Heat guard is shooting just 28.8% from beyond the arc in those 11 games.

But then there’s a three-game stretch in there where he went 12-for-25 (42.4%). And in the 12 games prior to the injury, Herro was draining 40.9% of his 10.6 attempts per game from distance. 

If there’s a team you can get into a shooting rhythm against, it’s the Rockets, as they have a real problem with its perimeter defense. If fact, Houston may be the worst team in the NBA when it comes to defending the 3-ball.

The Rockets allow the most opponent 3-point attempts and makes per game while ranking 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. They sure had trouble containing Herro when these two teams last met on December 15, as last year's Sixth Man of the Year went a crazy 10-for-15 from downtown.

The plus money makes backing Herro and his 3-pointer total worthwhile.

Tyler Herro prop: Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+125)

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