The NBA tips off a new week with seven matchups for bettors to dive into. That means no shortage of options regarding NBA player props, but that’s what I’m here for.
I’ve scoured the schedule for my three favorite plays including a fade of the dumpster fire that is the Philadelphia 76ers, a Grizzlies shooter to find his rhythm vs. the Hawks, and opportunity knocks for a Kings big man against a depleted Mavericks frontcourt.
Here are my NBA picks for Monday, March 3.
Best NBA player props today
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Clingan 10+ rebounds (+130 at bet365) -
Bane Over 2.5 threes (+105 at bet365) -
Valanciunas Over 13.5 points (-115 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 3
Donovan Clingan 10+ rebounds (+130 at bet365)
The Philadelphia 76ers are a dumpster fire and I will continue to fade them until the season ends. Yes, the Sixers are coming off a win against the Golden State Warriors, but they needed an inconceivable shooting performance from Quentin Grimes to get it. So, the fade continues.
One of my favorite ways to fade Philly is on the glass. Not having Joel Embiid has been a big problem. But I’m not sure many expected the Sixers to rank dead last in the NBA in rebounding rate.
They also rank 19th in opponent rebounds per game, so even a team like the Portland Trail Blazers can bully them on the boards.
That’s exactly what I’m betting happens when these two teams meet in Philadelphia tonight. In particular, it has me looking at the rebounding prop for Blazers rookie Donovan Clingan. The former UConn Huskie is averaging 5.7 points and 6.8 rebounds over 47 games this season.
But thanks to some injuries, Clingan has been inserted into the starting lineup and he’s starting to show the potential of a No. 7 overall pick.
As a starter, the 7-foot-2 rookie is averaging 8.3 points and 8.9 rebounds over this latest seven-game stretch. Clingan has been uber-effective on the boards all year when getting starter minutes, averaging 9.5 rebounds over 17 starts this season.
Clingan’s rebounding prop for this matchup is 8.5, but his starter average and our Covers Prop Projections set him at 9.6 rebounds. Therefore, give me his alt rebounds of +10 at +130.
Desmond Bane Over 2.5 threes (+105 at bet365)
The Memphis Grizzlies will be 9-point favorites when they host the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night, and for good reason.
The Hawks come into this matchup having lost four of five straight up and against the spread since coming out of the All-Star break and five of six overall. While the Hawks have improved defensively this season, you can still burn them on the perimeter.
Atlanta ranks 18th in opponent 3-pointer attempts allowed per game while surrendering the third-highest opponent 3-point shooting percentage, resulting in the fourth-most opponent threes made per game.
While the Grizzlies have also struggled since the break, going 2-for-4 straight up and 0-5-1 ATS, they have the firepower to take down the Hawks here.
That has me specifically looking at Desmond Bane. The Grizz shooting guard has admittedly struggled with his rhythm lately, but I’m betting a matchup with the Hawks is just what he needs to heat up.
Remember, Bane is still a career 40.9% shooter from 3-point range and hitting a solid 37.8% of his attempts this season. And even despite some recent struggles, Bane has still drained three or more threes four times over his last eight games.
I like Bane to shoot himself into a rhythm in this good matchup against the Hawks, so I am taking the Over 2.5 made threes at plus money.
Jonas Valanciunas Over 13.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The Sacramento Kings were just dealt a tough hand. The Kings had won three in a row to stay in lock step with the other play-in teams in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, it was just announced star-center Domantas Sabonis will be out at least a week with a hamstring strain.
Luckily, Sacramento has a contingency plan with backup center Jonas Valanciunas, and it presents a nice opportunity for bettors.
The trade for Valanciunas initially looked a little peculiar, but he is the perfect substitute for Sabonis in this scenario. The 13-year NBA veteran is averaging 11 points and 7.9 rebounds per game this season.
While his production dipped at first with the Kings, he’s put together back-to-back 15-point performances going a combined 12-for-13 from the floor, and I like him to stay hot in what should be his first start with his new team in Monday night’s matchup against the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavs are also battling for a Play-In position, sitting just percentage points behind the Kings in the standings, but are currently doing so with an even more depleted frontcourt.
Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively, and Daniel Gafford are still expected to miss multiple weeks with various injuries, and power forward PJ Washington is listed as out for tonight’s game.
This Mavericks team already ranks 23rd in opponent points in the paint and they should have absolutely no presence on the inside in this matchup. So, give me JV to go Over a modest point total of 13.5 in this Western Conference showdown.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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