While you might be distracted with some other basketball event today, don’t forget about the NBA, where there is still plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.
Look for Josh Hart to step up against the Hornets following at tough loss to the Spurs, Coby White to carve up a stumbling Kings defense, and the Lakers to continue struggling to clean the glass against the Bucks.
Here are my NBA picks for Thursday, March 20.
Best NBA player props today
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Hart dbl-dbl (+125 at bet365) -
White o4.5 asts (+130 at bet365) -
Lillard o4.5 rebs (+135 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 20
Josh Hart double-double (+125 at bet365)
Do the New York Knicks miss Jalen Brunson? Well, they are 3-3 since he went down with an ankle injury that will cost him at least a few more games, which includes coming off an embarrassing 120-105 loss to the “we’ve mailed it in” San Antonio Spurs.
If the Knicks want to bounce back, they’ll have to do it quickly and with contributions all over the floor as they visit the Charlotte Hornets in the second half of a back-to-back.
It’s kind of funny. The Hornets enter this game 3-3 in their last six games as well. They are trying to get a better draft pick and actually beat the Spurs in that stretch.
Jokes aside, Charlotte is actually in a tight battle for the top pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, and while the Hornets have won a few more games lately, it's clear defense isn’t a priority these days.
Charlotte enters this matchup ranked 27th in defensive rating since coming out of the All-Star break. And thank goodness the Hornets got to keep Mark Williams, because even with their starting center they rank 20th in rebounding rate and 27th in opponent rebounds per game.
To me this all sets up well for Josh Hart to have a big game. Hart has done it all for the Knicks this season. He is averaging 14 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game while playing the most minutes in the NBA.
He has also been a double-double machine, notching 30 in 65 games played this season, including four in the last seven games. I like his odds to record another tonight.
Hart’s double-doubles generally come off his rebounding numbers, and his rebounding prop is set at 9.5 against a team that struggles to clean the glass. He gets No. 31 tonight and the plus money makes this a solid bet.
Coby White Over 4.5 assists (+130 at bet365)
It’s a reunion of sorts as Zach LaVine takes on his former team for the first time as the Chicago Bulls visit the Sacramento Kings.
And it’s not just the LaVine angle that makes this game interesting. Both teams sit in ninth place in their respective conferences, and both are playing the second half of a back-to-back tonight.
Even though the Bulls are 6.5-point underdogs, I think they're in a prime position to keep this game close. That’s mainly because the Kings’ effort at the defensive end of the floor has been lacking, to put it nicely.
The Kings have allowed at least 119 points in each of their last five games, good for the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA over that span.
The Bulls aren’t a great scoring team, but they have ranked 16th in offensive rating since the All-Star break. Chicago has been getting contributions all over the court, and guard Coby White has been cooking.
White is averaging 27.3 points over his last 10 games, but I’m going to focus on his playmaking tonight. The 25-year-old is averaging 4.5 assists per game this season and faces a Kings team that has been burned by the extra pass during this five-game stretch, ranking 28th in opponent assists per possession.
Speaking of possessions, the Bulls are playing at the third-highest pace since the break. That means more opportunities for the Bulls to get buckets, hopefully assisted by White.
The Over 4.5 assists for White being priced at +130 makes this bet an easy one to fire on.
Damian Lillard Over 4.5 rebounds (+135 at bet365)
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Los Angeles Lakers will play for the second time in a week, this time in Los Angeles. The Bucks won the previous meeting at home in a 126-106 blowout made more entertaining by the fact that Luka Doncic went for 45 points without LeBron James on the court.
And one thing has become pretty clear with Anthony Davis now gone and LeBron out — the only reliable rebounder for the Lakers is Doncic.
James has missed the last five games and is slated to miss at least a couple more, and the Lakers rank 25th in rebounding rate and 22nd in opponent rebounds per game during that period. That has me fading them on the glass with a player prop tonight.
The other thing to note about the Lakers these days is that they’re primarily a perimeter shooting team with Doncic leading the offense. This generally means longer rebounds, so I’m looking at Damian Lillard tonight.
Lillard is obviously known for his shooting but still averages 4.7 rebounds per game this season. That is up to 4.9 over the last 10 games, where he has hauled down five or more boards six times, including grabbing six rebounds in the most recent meeting with the Lakers.
This is another situation where the price sends this play over the top. The Over 4.5 rebounds can be had at +135. So, give me Dame to grab five or more boards for the seventh time in his last 11 games.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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