There’s a great night of NBA action on the court ahead of us tonight, with nine games on the schedule.
That means there is no shortage of NBA player props to bet on, but luckily I’m here to do the work for you and bring you my favorite three plays for the day, including another fade of the Philadelphia 76ers while Luka Doncic cleans the glass for the Los Angeles Lakers. Finally, is Kawhi Leonard all the way back?
I dig into all three scenarios with my NBA picks for Tuesday, March 4.
Best NBA player props today
George u19.5 pts (-115 at bet365) 
Leonard o23.5 pts (-115 at bet365) 
Doncic 10+ rebs (+215 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 4
Paul George Under 19.5 Points (-115 at bet365)
Fading the Philadelphia 76ers has become one of my favorite pastimes and that won’t change when they visit Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.
This season has been an unmitigated disaster for the Sixers. Inconsistent play combined with Joel Embiid being in-and-out of the lineup before finally being ruled out for the season has resulted in a 21-39 record for a team that had aspirations of contending with the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference.
And things are spiraling. The Sixers earned just one win in February. They are 2-12 straight up and 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games and sit 2.5 games out of the final Play-In spot in the East.
So, it’s reasonable to question how motivated this team will be moving forward. More specifically, how motivated will a guy like Paul George be, who came to Philly to pursue a championship?
George has been fine, averaging 16.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. But the lost season seems to be wearing on him. PG-13’s scoring average has dropped to 14.4 on 44.6% shooting over his last 10 games and now he’ll have to go against one of the better defensive teams in the NBA.
Minnesota's ranked sixth in defensive rating and seventh in opponent-effective field-goal percentage.
George has only hit the 20-point plateau once in his last 10 games but his point total is at 19.5. Give me the Under in this matchup all day.
Kawhi Leonard Over 23.5 Points (-115 at bet365)
The Los Angeles Clippers have been in a slump since the All-Star break, going just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in the first six games of a seven-game road trip, including back-to-back losses to the cross-town Los Angeles Lakers.
They close out that road trip tonight when they visit the Phoenix Suns, who, luckily for the Clippers, have been in a season-long slump. The Suns are 2-5 SU/ATS since the break and remain on the outside looking in at the Play-In picture, sitting in 11th in the Western Conference.
The difference here is the Clippers have two things going in their favor to bust out of their slump. They play good defense and Kawhi Leonard is looking like his old self.
Leonard is coming off his best game of the season, putting up 33 points while going 13-for-23 from the floor. The most impressive part was he played nearly 40 minutes. He is now averaging 24.2 points while shooting 44.1% from 3-point range over his last five and I like his chances of keeping that going against a Suns team that has struggled at the defensive end of the floor.
Phoenix's chemistry has been off all season long. Yes, they have Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, but they haven’t been good enough to cover up their flaws. Specifically, the fact that the Suns have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.
You can also burn the Suns on the perimeter. They rank 23rd in opponent 3-point attempts per game while ranking 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Kawhi’s point total is a modest 23.5. He’s topped that number in three of his last five games and a healthy Kawhi is a bad matchup for anyone, let alone a Suns team that can’t stop anyone from getting buckets these days.
Luka Doncic 10+ Rebounds (+215 at bet365)
I like to play a fun game when it comes to the Los Angeles Lakers these days. I call it “Fade or Luka.”
When the Lakers traded for Luka Doncic, they had to give up Anthony Davis, who was the team’s leading rebounder, hauling down 12 boards per game in the yellow and purple. But outside of AD, L.A. was not a great rebounding team and ranked 23rd in rebounding rate before the All-Star break.
So, the Lakers front office knew they had to address the issue and went out and traded for Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams. It was a great move until Williams failed his physical and the trade was vetoed (for what it’s worth, Williams looks great these days).
But that means the Lakers really lack a presence in the paint and good rebounding teams can take advantage. Or it means we can back Luka to clean up the glass as the team's de facto best rebounder.
Tonight, Luka's Lakers host the New Orleans Pelicans, who are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. That means we land on Luka!
They have the third-worst rebounding rate in the NBA while surrendering the fourth-most rebounds per game.
Now, the Clippers were effective in keeping Doncic off the boards the last two games, but he hauled down 10+ in his four games before that. Luka’s rebounding prop is 7.5 with the number juiced to the Over.
Instead, I’m backing Luka on his alt rebounds to grab 10-plus once again at nice plus money.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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