We get our first real ball night in the NBA and with 20 teams on the court which means there is no shortage of value to be found in the NBA player props markets.
Immanuel Quickley will focus on scoring, Dejounte Murray will light up the Bulls in his Pelicans debut and Jabari Smith will be all the buzz on the boards against the Hornets.
Here are my NBA picks for Wednesday, Oct. 23.
Best NBA player props today
Quickley u7.5 asts (-110 at bet365)
Murray o2.5 3s (+130 at DraftKings)
Smith o7.5 rebs (+100 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 10-23 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
NBA player props for October 23
Prop bet #1: Immanuel Quickley Under 7.5 assists
Immanuel Quickley begins his first season full season with the Toronto Raptors as they open their 2024-25 campaign against the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers.
Quickley put up career highs in points (18.6), assists (6.8), and rebounds (4.8) while shooting a career-best 39.5% from 3-point range in 38 games after being acquired by Toronto last season. And the Raptors felt Quickley was just scratching the surface as they handed him a 5-year, $175-million extension in the offseason.
Now, the season-opener has Quickley in an interesting situation. Toronto will be without Barrett, Kelly Olynyk, Bruce Brown, and Ja’Kobe Walters against the Cavs. All of whom are expected to be rotation pieces for the Raps this season.
That has me thinking Quickley will be more focused on scoring than playmaking in this matchup and has me targeting the Under on his 7.5 assists for this one.
Now, Quickley averaged 6.8 assists per game as a member of the Raps but there is an important split here. Pre-Scottie Barnes injury and post-Scottie Barnes injury.
The 2021-22 Rookie of the Year is also one of Toronto’s primary ball handlers and averaged 6.1 assists per game before a hand injury ended his season in early March. With Barnes, Quickley averaged 5.8 assists per game. Without him, it ballooned up to 8.3.
Barnes is playing tonight. Combine that with a potential focus on scoring, being down a few reliable scoring options, and going against a Cleveland team that ranked sixth in opponent assists per possession and the Under makes a lot of sense here.
Prop bet #2: Dejounte Murray Over 2.5 threes
Dejounte Murray plays his first game for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight when they host the visiting Chicago Bulls, and I like him to start the season with a bang.
It felt almost as if Murray was wasted for two seasons in Atlanta, but the 28-year-old was still productive. He averaged 21.5 points with a .522 effective field goal percentage while adding 6.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game with the Hawks.
He is also coming off his best season shooting the ball from beyond the arc, hitting 36.3% from 3-point range on 7.1 attempts per game.
Now, there are a few more mouths to feed on what should be a much better team in New Orleans but I like this matchup.
It looks like it'll be a tough season for the Bulls, who enter the 2024-25 season with one of the lower win totals at 28.5 and Billy Donovan is definitely on the hot seat.
The Bulls need to improve on the defensive end if they have any hope of going over that number. Chicago ended last season ranked 22nd in defensive rating and 23rd in opponent-effective field goal percentage. But they really struggled on the perimeter.
The Bulls gave up the most 3-point attempts per game while allowing opponents to shoot 37% from deep. Mix in the fact that their best perimeter defender, Alex Caruso, now plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder and those numbers could get worse this season.
Prop bet #3: Jabari Smith Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds
The Houston Rockets look like they’ll be a candidate as an early-season NBA League Pass must-watch team.
The Rockets enter the season looking to improve on their 41-41 record from a season ago and will attempt to do so with a core that has a good balance of veterans like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, as well as several young guns.
One of those young guns is Jabari Smith. The 6-foot-11 21-year-old improved across the board last season — "board" being the keyword. Smith not only improved as a shooter, averaging 13.7 points with a 53.7% effective field goal percentage, but he also hauled down 8.1 rebounds per game and I like him to clean the glass in tonight’s season-opening matchup against the Charlotte Hornets.
The Hornets are looking to take the next step in their development but part of that relies on the health of big man Mark Williams.
Williams was also having a breakout campaign last season, averaging 12.7 points, and was a presence on the inside with 9.7 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game. The problem was the Hornets were pushovers in the paint without Williams and he ended up playing just 19 games.
Charlotte ended the season with the third-worst rebounding rate in the NBA and guess who won’t be playing in this game. That’s right, Williams is out with a foot injury.
On top of that, the Hornets were one of the least efficient shooting teams in the NBA last season, ranking 26th in eFG%. So, that means lots of rebounds up for grabs.
Today’s NBA games
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