The NBA saw fit to unofficially pass the torch in tonight’s season openers, sending Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves to face LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. Tip off is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, with the game airing on TNT.
Whether Ant really is “next” or not will depend on much more than tonight’s result, but my Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions will focus on him, anyway.
Find out more in my NBA picks for Tuesday, October 22, and make sure to check out our favorite Timberwolves vs. Lakers props!
Timberwolves vs Lakers prediction
A little bit about Bronny
So you want to bet on Bronny James tonight?
Well, you can’t.
As of Tuesday afternoon, no major sportsbook offers a Bronny prop bet of any regard, aside from DraftKings allowing you to bet how many points he and his father will combine for.
Note: That prop bet carries more juice than LeBron’s points prop does on its own.
This is going to be a close game, so the Lakers will not look to the 15th man on their bench for minutes. If Bronny James plays, it will be as a PR move, and those few seconds would thus cost the sportsbooks every Under bet placed on Bronny James props. Thus, they are smart enough to not offer them.
That is the difference between a nightly prop bet and a season-long futures bet, as Bronny is infamously taking far too much action to win Rookie of the Year.
The sportsbooks were glad to offer that because they are certain of that victory. They will not offer these prop bets, as Bronny Unders would incur the massive risk that would pay out anytime Bronny played a possession with no other viability.
My best bet
Anthony Edwards Over 2.5 made threes (-137 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
When the Minnesota Timberwolves traded for Rudy Gobert two years ago, the easy assumption was their offense would need to space out more to not be driving into a crowded lane. Paradoxically, Anthony Edwards’ 3-point rate plummeted, taking 48.6% of his shots from deep in the year before Gobert’s arrival — but only 37.4% and 34.0% in the two seasons since.
It makes some sense. With Gobert down low, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid needed to space the floor, so the perimeter was a bit more crowded than before Gobert’s arrival. Towns spent more time on the inside and there was one less lethal shooter around the arc.
If paying closer attention, we may have seen it coming. That first preseason with Gobert, Edwards took 32.4% of his shots from deep, a massive drop from the previous regular season that may have portended the falloff when the games mattered.
Furthermore, Edwards had a directive to draw more fouls, establishing himself as a superstar. One piece of that has become clear: Edwards is a superstar.
Maybe it is the absence of Towns. Maybe Edwards has found a new feel from deep. Maybe he was just messing around in the preseason. But even if it was the latter piece, Edwards’ shot distribution this preseason needs to be noted.
Ant took 65.8% of his field goals from deep.
Even if he was messing around in the preseason, that rate is significantly higher than any other preseason. Last year’s sat at 39.8%, with his rookie preseason figures finishing at 52.8%.
Edwards emphasized shooting from deep this preseason. Logic says there was a reason.
The preseason foreshadowed a change in approach the last time the Timberwolves remade their roster. It likely does again now.
Ant is too dynamic when driving downhill to take two-thirds of his shots from deep this season, but he is going to spend more time behind the arc. That will be to a shrewd bettor’s advantage when he takes on the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.
Timberwolves vs Lakers same-game parlay (SGP)
Anthony Edwards Over 2.5 made threes
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 assists
Timberwolves moneyline
The Timberwolves long coveted Donte DiVincenzo. When the Knicks finally included him in trade talks, moving Towns was no longer as much of a worry.
Minnesota has quickly put the ball in DiVincenzo’s hands, averaging 6.9 assists per 36 minutes in the preseason. He's taken the lead as Mike Conley’s primary backup rather than Nickeil Alexander-Walker or rookie Rob Dillingham.
DiVincenzo’s rate will fall off with Conley playing more when the games actually matter, but he will still be called upon to move the ball more often than anyone else on the roster, often to Edwards as he sets up for a 3-pointer.
Minnesota is a deeper team both in top-end talent and in actual depth than Los Angeles. If this game was six weeks from now, the Timberwolves would probably be favored by a full bucket. Let’s take advantage of that value created by the season-opening buzz.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Timberwolves vs Lakers odds
Timberwolves vs Lakers live odds
Get the latest Timberwolves vs Lakers NBA odds.
Timberwolves vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -105 | Los Angeles -115
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Timberwolves vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened in mid-August with sportsbooks torn on who should be favored, some leaning toward the Lakers by 1.5 points, others toward the Timberwolves by one.
- When Towns was traded about a month ago, Minnesota remained firm as a 1.5-point favorite, that number climbing to -2.5 last week before resettling at -1.5.
- The total opened at 224.5 and remained rather steady until the last week, slipping to 223.5 and then plummeting to 219.5 on Monday and 218.5 on Tuesday.
- The total then bounced aggressively yesterday, returning to 222.5.
- According to our Covers Consensus tool, 63% of bettors are banking on the Wolves to cover the spread.
Timberwolves vs Lakers trend
Los Angeles has gone 0-6 straight-up and against the spread in season openers during the LeBron James Era. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Lakers.
How to Watch Timberwolves vs Lakers
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-22-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Timberwolves vs Lakers latest injuries
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