The Washington Capitals topped the Philadelphia Flyers 4-1 at the Wells Fargo Center last night, and the two Metropolitan foes hit the ice again on Wednesday, October 23.
Quality scoring chances were few and far between in the first game of the back-to-back set, and our top Flyers vs. Capitals predictions expect Philly to have trouble finding the back of the net in losing fashion again tonight. Read on for my full NHL picks for tonight's clash.
Flyers vs Capitals prediction
My best bet
Capitals moneyline (-135 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Washington Capitals held the Philadelphia Flyers to just a single goal, 1.6 expected goals, and only five high-danger scoring chances in Tuesday’s showdown. I anticipate the Caps replicating the defensive dominance on home ice tonight.
Philly is averaging just 2.17 goals per game with the second-fewest goals (1.41) and third-fewest expected goals (2.13) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 through six games. On the flip side, Washington has surrendered just 2.14 expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5 while allowing two goals or fewer in three of five contests.
The outliers for the Caps have been surrendering five spots in both meetings with the New Jersey Devils. Before holding the Flyers in check Tuesday, Washington also limited the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars to just two goals apiece in back-to-back wins last week.
Washington made multiple offseason moves, and the early returns are positive. The Caps are above the line with a respectable 50.4 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5, while also ranking fourth with a dominant 56.0 xGF%. I also expect positive regression between the pipes, beginning with a solid showing from first-year Cap Logan Thompson.
Thompson was solid against his former team in his Washington debut but then stopped just 26 of 31 shots against the Devils last time out. He posted a solid .912 save percentage, 2.68 GAA, and 0.08 goals saved above average per 60 minutes across 102 appearances with the Golden Knights the past three years, after all.
Philadelphia likely turning to unproven goalie Ivan Fedotov is another draw to the Washington side. Fedotov has a confidence-shattering .815 SV%, 5.46 GAA, and -2.14 GSAA/60 over his five NHL appearances.
Flyers vs Capitals same-game parlay (SGP)
Capitals moneyline
Under 6
Andrew Mangiapane Under 0.5 points
Washington didn’t exactly light it up offensively Tuesday, either. The Capitals scored two short-handed goals and only generated 2.16 expected goals and seven high-danger scoring chances. Additionally, statistical correction is also coming to Washington’s unsustainably high 13.1 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5. Philly is set to improve on its low 5.1 team SH%, but Washington has been stingy at even strength and playing sound team defense.
I expect this to be a low-scoring game.
The Capitals brought in former 30-goal scorer Andrew Mangiapane this summer, and he potted one of Tuesday’s short-handed tallies. He’s been skating in a third-line role and with the No. 2 power-play unit most of the year, and while his underlying numbers are solid, Mangiapane has also played the third-fewest minutes (37:46) at 5-on-5 the past four games with only linemates Hendrix Lapierre and Jakub Vrana trailing him.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Flyers vs Capitals odds
Flyers vs Capitals live odds
Flyers vs Capitals opening odds
- Puck line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-213) | Washington -1.5 (+185)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +118 | Washington -133
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-101) | Under 6 (-113)
Flyers vs Capitals trend
The Capitals have won four consecutive games and three straight head-to-head matchups with the Flyers. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Capitals.
How to watch Flyers vs Capitals
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-22-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, Sportsnet |
Flyers vs Capitals latest injuries
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