Two teams trending in opposite directions meet Wednesday night in Conference USA action when the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders face the Jacksonville State Gamecocks.
The Blue Raiders have just one win to their name in conference play, and my Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State predictions expect the Gamecocks to demolish their opponent.
Read why in my college football picks for Wednesday, October 23.
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Jacksonville State -20.5 (-108 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
All things considered, Middle Tennessee has one of the worst defenses in college football. The Blue Raiders rank 126th or worse in total EPA, success rate, EPA/play, and yards allowed per play.
Unfortunately, the offense isn’t very good either. Last week, the team faced Kennesaw State who ranked 99th in total defensive EPA and 112th in success rate. The Blue Raiders found success on just 38% of their offensive snaps, with a -0.26 EPA/play that placed them in the ninth percentile nationally.
More concerning for MTSU is the fact its offense managed just 14 points, despite winless Kennesaw State allowing 24+ points to every other team it faced. That includes the 63 points Jacksonville State hung on the Owls two weeks ago.
The Gamecocks rushed for eight touchdowns in that 63-24 win, the most in school history. Rich Rodriguez has his offense rolling with three straight wins, scoring 44+ points in each.
Tyler Huff is a dual-threat quarterback causing problems for every team he faces this season. Huff even ran for 101 yards and a touchdown against Louisville.
Middle Tennessee is abysmal against the pass, and not good at all against the run. Jacksonville State doesn’t pass often, but is gaining nine yards an attempt which ranks ninth nationally. It’s the run game where the Gamecocks will find the most success, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and running the ball nearly 61% of the time — both Top 20 marks.
The Gamecocks rank sixth in early down EPA/play, and the rushing attack led by Huff and Tre Stewart will score early and turn this into a blowout as they wear down a struggling defense before hitting them with big pass plays off play action.
Jacksonville State has won each of its last three games by at least 37 points... covering the 20.5-point spread won’t be a problem here.
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State same-game parlay (SGP)
Jacksonville State -20.5
Tre Stewart Over 99.5 rushing yards
Stewart 2+ touchdowns
Stewart has 20+ carries in each of his last two games, the most he’s had all season. On both occasions, he’s topped the century mark.
Given his increased workload the past few games, and having had two weeks to rest up, I’ll be surprised if he fails to rush for at least 100 yards.
In addition to his yardage gained, Stewart has been finding the end zone often. He’s scored multiple touchdowns in each of his last three games, and 3+ in the last two outings. Stewart is good value to punch it in multiple times before it’s over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State odds
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State live odds
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State opening odds
- Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State spread: Jacksonville State -21.5
- Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State moneyline: Middle Tennessee +850, Jacksonville State -1,600
- Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State Over/Under: 63.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Middle Tennessee has seen the spread come down in its favor, going from -23.5 to -20.5 the past few days. But the Blue Raiders are just 2-5 ATS this season, and 1-2 ATS away from home.
- The total of 63.5 has seen no movement so far, and is the highest total for either team this season. MTSU has seen two 60+ totals and both went Under, while the Gamecocks have gone Under on their highest total of 59 against Southern Miss.
- I like the Under, as I’m not sure Middle Tennessee will be able to do enough offensively to help out. The Under is 4-1 in its last five away contests, although the Gamecocks have seen the Over cash in nine of their last 11.
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State betting trend to know
Jacksonville State has hit the game total Over in nine of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI).. Find more college football betting trends for Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State.
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State game info
| Location: | AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, AL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State latest injuries
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