We have two games on the schedule tonight, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best player prop bets.
The Boston Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis as they look to eliminate the Miami Heat from the NBA playoffs and get some revenge for their loss in the Eastern Conference Finals last season.
With the Heat on the brink of elimination and the Los Angeles Clippers playing a crucial Game 5 against the Dallas Mavericks, find out which NBA player props I'm backing in my free NBA picks for Wednesday, May 1.
Best NBA player props today
- Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 assists (-112 at DraftKings)
- James Harden Over 7.5 assists (-135 at DraftKings)
- Russell Westbrook Over 3.5 assists (+136 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 5-1 at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for May 1
Prop bet #1: What can (Jaylen) Brown do for you?
Jaylen Brown hasn't had a high-assist game in this series against the Miami Heat, with the most helpers being three. The thing is, his adjusted total is reflecting that as well, as Brown is trading at 2.5 (-112) for the Over, which is low for him. We typically saw Brown trade with a total of 3.5 in the regular season or at 2.5 with increased juice on the Over. If you're going to give me Brown at 2.5 (-112), I'm hitting the button.
One of the encouraging parts about this bet for Brown is that although three of the four games have been blowouts, we still haven't seen him play fewer than 33 minutes. This catches my eye because the Boston Celtics are 14.5-point favorites and the projection we are using on Brown to establish an edge on this number is 36 minutes.
The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis, as he will miss several games with a calf injury. This should increase the usage for Brown on the offensive end, which will help his assists prop, and Porzingis will be replaced in the lineup by Al Horford, who is going to work as a catch-and-shoot threat off other Celtics players creating for him.
With Porzingis out and the Celtics lacking an interior offensive threat, don't be shocked if we see them hunting matchups in the low block for Brown against some of the smaller Heat guards. This would force the Heat to send help defense, also opening up potential assists.
Brown is projected to have 3.4 assists, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists for Brown at -183, but it is available at DraftKings at -112.
Jaylen Brown prop: Over 2.5 assists (-112 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: The Harden they fall
As someone holding onto a Dallas Mavericks series bet, I wasn't too happy when I saw James Harden knock down floater after floater down the stretch in Game 4, but there are some takeaways we can use when evaluating the veteran guard's assists prop, especially when it is trading at 7.5 (-135 for the Over).
In the final minutes of Game 4, the Mavericks were guarding Harden with PJ Washington, and there was an emphasis on stopping his 3-point shot. Washington was up in Harden's grill, essentially conceding the drive. Harden capitalized by making multiple floaters, and Jason Kidd has stated that the game plan won't change for Game 5. The goal is to take away Harden's three and make him drive.
If the Mavericks are going to extend their defense against Harden and allow him to get in the lane, his potential assists could be off the charts. Harden doesn't have the athleticism to finish at the rim like he once did, so once he gets in the lane, he will be looking to pass.
The Mavericks' strategy might not change in Game 5, but that doesn't mean the personnel will remain the same. When Harden was draining shots in Game 4, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively were both on the bench, with Maxi Kleber playing the 5. If Kidd brings in his rim protection in Gafford and Lively instead of Kleber, Harden will have a trickier time getting those floaters off in the lane and should be more focused on drawing attention and dumping off passes to one of his teammates to finish
Harden is projected to have 8.9 assists on Wednesday against the Mavericks, which allows us to price the Over 7.5 assists at -189, but it is available at DraftKings at -135.
James Harden prop: Over 7.5 assists (-135 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Russell Westbrook
The Los Angeles Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard once again due to a knee injury, opening up minutes in the Clippers rotation, but the beauty of this bet on the Over 3.5 assists (+136) for Westbrook is that we aren't dependent on elevated minutes to establish an edge.
We have a healthy edge on the Over with a projection of 23 minutes for Westbrook, which is right around his season average. Additionally, he is averaging 22 minutes per game in the series, with his lowest minute output being 19 in a game Leonard played. While we're not dependent on elevated minutes for Westbrook to establish an edge, it does feel like it's very possible that he could see them.
The Mavericks offense flows through Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. In Game 4, the Clippers were unable to contain Irving as he scored 40 points. If Irving gets off to a hot start once again, you're telling me Ty Lue might not look at his bench with Leonard out and opt to give Westbrook more run so he can be Kyrie's primary defender? Outside of Paul George, Westbrook is the next best defender on the roster, especially on the perimeter.
If you look at the potential assists for Westbrook in Game 4, when he had only three, this bet probably doesn't get you excited. However, the stats don't paint the entire picture. If you go watch the film, Westbrook had three plays in the first half alone that took away a potential assist. There was an illegal screen on a pass to George and another player where Westbrook generated a wide-open 3-point look for Harden, but there was miscommunication on where the pass was headed.
Westbrook is projected to have 4.1 assists, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -140, but it is available at DraftKings at +136.
Russell Westbrook prop: Over 3.5 assists (+136 at DraftKings)
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