The Toronto Raptors’ nine-game losing streak is starting to weigh heavily on the players, and that raises the pressure level going into tonight’s clash with the in-form Atlanta Hawks.
There’s something special brewing in Atlanta this year amid a 17-15 start, but my Hawks vs Raptors predictions point to a big Scottie Barnes performance giving Toronto a boost here.
My NBA picks for this Sunday, December 29 battle also focus on Jalen Johnson, who’s in the middle of a breakout season for the Hawks.
Raptors vs Hawks prediction
My Raptors pick
Scottie Barnes Over 21.5 points (-105 at PointsBet Canada)
My analysis
It’s been a rough week for the Toronto Raptors’ defensive rating, with them allowing 139 points and 155 points in respective games. While Scottie Barnes hasn’t provided the answers at that end of the floor, his scoring is on an encouraging upward curve for the 7-24 hosts.
Barnes has shot a combined 20-for-40 from the field on the way to 50 total points across his last two outings, and he seems to have the memo that he has to embrace that kind of volume to keep the Raptors afloat. There are easy buckets up for grabs in the paint whenever he wants them.
He had struggled to get to this 21.5 number in prior weeks, but I like what we saw this week from Toronto’s No.1 scoring option, who went into this season saying that all he wants to do is win. So far, those wins have been in short supply.
A more aggressive approach should add up to more free-throw attempts, too. He’s been to the line 19 times in his past four contests, and there’s certainly room for that number to climb.
Barnes’ streaky 3-point shooting remains a concern — he’s down to just 28% from beyond the arc this year — but he’s got a green light to keep shooting and is capable of powering to this Over with dunks, layups, and short jump shots.
The Atlanta Hawks are giving up 119.2 ppg — fourth-most in the NBA — and I’m wagering on Barnes to hunt mismatches and get to his spots. If Toronto snaps its ugly losing run tonight, it has to start with a standout effort from its best player.
Raptors vs Hawks same-game parlay
Scottie Barnes Over 21.5 points
Jalen Johnson Over 31.5 points + rebounds
Raptors +3.5
Jalen Johnson is making himself a Most Improved Player candidate this year, and he’s a nightly threat for at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. This 31.5 combo O/U might seem steep but he’s blown past that total in his last two outings, including a 30-point, 15-rebound effort against the Chicago Bulls on Friday.
And if Trae Young is ruled out with a heel injury, Johnson will step into an even bigger role in the offense. With 11 or more rebounds in four straight games, there’s a reasonable floor for the Hawks’ do-it-all wing.
I’m also riding with the Raptors as a live home underdog. They’ve got the Barnes and R.J. Barrett pairing to run the show offensively, and Jakob Poeltl could return as the team’s defensive anchor.
Toronto is 19-11-1 ATS this year, and Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic are both listed as questionable. This adjusted spread feels like a nice addition for my SGP, with the Raptors desperate to end their current skid.
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Raptors vs Hawks odds
Raptors vs Hawks live odds
Raptors vs Hawks opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +1.5 (-110) | Atlanta -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Toronto +100 | Atlanta -120
- Over/Under: Over 235.5 (-110) | Under 235.5 (-110)
Raptors vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- While Atlanta has won three straight games, six of the Raptors’ seven wins have come at Scotiabank Arena, and the hosts’ injury woes are easing.
- The Hawks are 7-7 on the road this year and they’ve dropped their last two contests away from State Farm Arena.
- The Over is 21-11 for Atlanta this season — and it’s 6-4 in the past 10 meetings between these teams.
- Get ready for a frenzied finish, with the Raptors hitting the 4Q Over in 21 of their last 30 home games.
Raptors vs Hawks trend
The Over is 34-14 in Atlanta’s last 48 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Hawks.
How to watch Raptors vs Hawks
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN SE, SN |
Raptors vs Hawks latest injuries
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