The Toronto Raptors return home after Thanksgiving in South Beach, and they’ve got a rematch against the in-form Miami Heat on tap tonight.
Toronto slipped to a 121-111 loss on Friday, despite leading at half-time, and my Heat vs Raptors predictions signal another high-scoring contest here as the hosts try to build on strong recent performances at Scotiabank Arena.
Check out my NBA picks for this December 1 clash, including more playmaking magic from Scottie Barnes.
Raptors vs Heat prediction
My Raptors pick
Over 221.5 (-110 at PointsBet Canada)
My analysis
With a 1-11 road record, the Toronto Raptors are still struggling to string together four solid quarters on their travels, but it’s a different story at home, where Toronto is 4-4 and looking capable of climbing into a play-in spot.
I’m counting on both teams to continue their sweet shooting from Friday’s matchup, where the Raptors had a 54% mark from the field (despite only making 11 triples) and the Miami Heat knocked down 21 3-pointers.
That feels like a formula for the Over, which has been a winning ticket in 11 of Toronto’s past 13 home games. It’s also hit in the past three meetings between these teams.
The hosts are again without their first-choice backcourt of Immanuel Quickley and Gradey Dick, but R.J. Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Jakob Poeltl combined for 73 points on Friday to keep the score close and Darko Rajakovic’s men have embraced a “next man up” mindset.
I’m also wagering on the Toronto bench to step up. That reserve unit chipped in with 34 points in the Raptors’ last home game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the energy of Jonathan Mogbo and Chris Boucher paves the way for precious second-chance points.
With Miami leaning into a barrage of 3-pointers, the Over is always within reach. The Heat rank seventh in the NBA in 3-point percentage this year (37.9%) while attempting 40 a game, and they’ve got a cleaner bill of health now that both Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are back in the line-up.
Though the Raptors’ offense has exceeded expectations so far, the hosts’ defense ranks in the bottom third of the league in points allowed — and that’s just another reason to pick the Over on a 221.5 O/U line here.
Raptors vs Heat same-game parlay
Over 221.5
Scottie Barnes Over 6.5 assists
Jimmy Butler Over 18.5 points
Until Quickley returns, look for Barnes to continue at the controls for a Toronto team that’s heavily dependent on his playmaking. He’s served up seven or more assists in five of his past six outings, and he was spectacular on Friday with a season-high 10 dimes.
The Heat have a few below-average defenders in their regular rotation and that should allow Barnes to pick at mismatches before finding sharpshooters like Ochai Agbaji and Jamison Battle. I’m jumping on the Over on this 6.5 O/U line.
I’m also taking the Over on the Butler points prop after he poured in 26 points against the Raptors in the matchup at Kaseya Center on 8-for-14 shooting.
He’s finished with 23 points or more in four of his last five contests — and 30 or more in two of those — and his totals are propped up by frequent trips to the charity stripe. He’s taken 51 free throws in his last five games, and that trend should continue tonight against a foul-happy Toronto defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Heat odds
Raptors vs Heat live odds
Raptors vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +4.5 | Miami -4.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +164 | Miami -188
- Over/Under: Over 222 | Under 222
Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada
Raptors vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Raptors are an impressive 13-7 ATS this season, but the Heat enter as 4.5-point favorites here after winning four of their past five games.
- Miami is 4-4 on the road this year, while Toronto has won consecutive home contests.
- Expect plenty of early points, with the Raptors cashing the 1Q Over in 18 of their last 24 games at Scotiabank Arena.
- The Over is 6-4 in the Heat’s past 10 outings, and it’s been a winning ticket in four of their last six games away from Kaseya Center.
Raptors vs Heat trend
With some frenzied finishes, the Raptors have hit the 4Q Over in 17 of their last 22 games at Scotiabank Arena. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.
How to watch Raptors vs Heat
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-1-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet |
Raptors vs Heat latest injuries
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