Spurs vs Bucks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: No Wemby Opens Even More Doors For Milwaukee

The Milwaukee Bucks are beginning to prove just how deadly they can be. Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo are beginning to get more comfortable sharing the offense, and that is a scary prospect for a San Antonio Spurs squad without a great defensive matchup for either superstar.

This would be no easy task for any team, let alone one that only recently snapped an 18-game losing streak. As if that was not enough, the Spurs will have to do it without franchise cornerstone Victor Wembanyama, who is set to miss just his second game of the season on Tuesday, December 19. NBA odds have reacted accordingly, installing the Bucks as 16.5-point favorites.

My NBA picks and predictions for Spurs vs. Bucks believe, in Wemby’s absence, Brook Lopez is going to have a block party while captaining Milwaukee’s backline defense.

Spurs vs Bucks odds

Spurs vs Bucks predictions

There’s been much ink spilled about the Milwaukee Bucks' problems, both on offense and defense. Slowly but surely, they’ve begun to reach the full potential of the Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard-led offense, and their defense has begun to look respectable. Much of the credit for that goes to Brook Lopez, who continues to defy father time and turn in quality defensive seasons even at 35 years of age.

Lopez remains an elite rim protector and it's easily argued that he’s better than ever. Per Cleaning the Glass, his 4.6% block rate is not only a personal best, but it puts him in the 97th percentile among all big men.

Adrian Griffin had Lopez playing way out of his comfort zone and ideal role to start the season, so Lopez and the Bucks broadly got off to a rocky defensive start. After some amount of player grumbling, Griffin owned up to the error of his ways and announced that they would return to the conservative drop scheme that Mike Budenholzer installed in Milwaukee to much success.

Lopez isn’t well suited to getting out on the floor anymore. His value on the defensive end increases exponentially for every minute he can spend in and around the basket. That time is going to tick up significantly with star San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama being listed as out with ankle soreness. 

While Wemby is not a strong 3-point shooter, he is an aggressive one. He has shown an ability to do real damage if he gets clean looks. If Brook was guarding Wemby on the arc all game, it would give license to an overall poor perimeter-shooting team to attack the rim with their wings and guards.

Instead, San Antonio will get no such relief. The Spurs will in all likelihood start Zach Collins in Wemby's place, who, while capable of hitting the occasional three, is not a threat to take triples in volume. Brook will be planted around the basket and all too ready to obliterate any shot attempts, knocking them into the fifth row.

Lopez is averaging 3.8 blocks over his last five games and has had at least three blocks in six of his last seven outings. With Victor out of the picture, I think these Brook Lopez odds make for a favorable bet for Tuesday’s game.

My best bet: Brook Lopez Over 2.5 blocks (+102 at Caesars)

Spurs vs Bucks same-game parlay

Brook Lopez Over 2.5 blocks

Over 249

Giannis Antetokounmpo 25+ points

+325 at DraftKings

While 249 is a high total, this is an exceptional matchup between an outstanding offense in Milwaukee against San Antonio's tissue-paper defense. The Spurs with Wembanyama on the court are something approaching average, but without him, they are in the running for league-worst levels. The Bucks, for their part, have been shooting the lights out at home, which has seen the Over cash in 11 of their last 15 home games.

For the third leg of my same-game parlay, I’m being conservative with my addition of Giannis points prop by going with the alternate number at 25 points or more. That’s obviously not because I doubt Giannis’ ability to dominate this matchup (particularly without Victor) but rather my fear that this game could be non-competitive for the final 24 minutes of action. 

I don’t foresee a situation in which Giannis will sit without at least adding 25, so I’m adding it last at modest odds to juice the overall value of the play.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spurs vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Spurs were always going to be up against it trying to keep this one competitive, but the surprise loss of Wembanyama has only stiffened the challenge. That’s been directly reflected in the line movement for tonight's tilt, with the Bucks opening as 13.5-point favorites before jumping to -16.5 with Wemby's injury designation.

That’s a tough break for San Antonio, who has not been successful against the spread this season at home, going just 4-7 ATS in Frost Bank Center over its last 11 outings.

The total opened at 247.5 and has only kept climbing, where it’s now available between 248.5 and 249. That’s an astronomical number and a credit to how well things are clicking on offense for Milwaukee of late. While the Bucks still aren't mashing the Giannis and Dame pick-and-roll button enough to my liking, they’ve gotten better at playing the pair off each other and leaving opponents with few good options.

The Spurs' improvements, such as they’ve made, have almost all come on the defensive end. And those, in turn, have been because Wemby was playing (and thriving) in his natural position at the five. Without him, they have no signature strength to lean on, and it’s easy to imagine them getting overwhelmed by the Dame’s perimeter firepower and Giannis’ rim pressure early.

These squads both rank in the Top 5 in pace, so there will be a lot of shots taken. The Spurs offense is the only piece that gives me pause about going with the Over. Only the Memphis Grizzlies have had a less effective offense over the last six games. 

But the Spurs are young and push the ball, and the Bucks have been among the league’s worst in defending in transition.

Spurs vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Over has gone 11-4 in the Bucks last 15 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Bucks.

Spurs vs Bucks game info

Spurs vs Bucks latest injuries

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