When it comes to the NBA odds to win this year’s Finals, the Phoenix Suns remain among the favorites, but it’s clear they're still trying to work out the kinks of this roster.
The Suns enter tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers just two games above .500 and sitting in 10th place in the Western Conference. Which is probably not somewhere they expected to be less than a week out from Christmas.
Luckily, Phoenix will get some breathing room as 7.5-point favorites against a struggling Blazers team. Portland is just 6-19 straight up this season, having lost seven in a row.
Can the Suns rise to the occasion and cover this spread? And is a former Blazer set up for a big game? I break down this Western Conference matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Trail Blazers.
Suns vs Trail Blazers odds
Suns vs Trail Blazers predictions
It feels kind of weird to say this about a team that features Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, but the Phoenix Suns’ biggest issue this season has been shooting the basketball.
The Suns rank a middling 12th in offensive rating and 17th in effective field goal percentage. Luckily, tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers could mean more possessions and second-chance points.
That’s because there are a lot of rebounds up for grabs in Trail Blazers games. Portland takes a lot of shots, particularly for a team without a bunch of good shooters. The Blazers rank ninth in field goal attempts per game but rank dead last in the NBA when it comes to effective field goal percentage.
To make matters worse, even with former Sun Deandre Ayton manning the middle, Portland isn't a great rebounding team. The Blazers rank 25th in rebounding rate and 24th in opponent rebounds per game.
So, that means I’m looking at a rebounding prop for the guy the Suns swapped Ayton for this season — Jusuf Nurkic.
The Suns’ big man has been solid this season, averaging 12.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. Now, his rebounding prop is sitting at 11.5 for tonight’s matchup, but I think he’s in for a big game on the glass.
Nurkic has been putting in more work on the boards lately; that rebounding average is up to 11.4 over the last 14 games, and he's pulled down 12 or more boards seven times over that stretch, which includes grabbing 12 rebounds in a Nov. 21 meeting against the Blazers.
I’m taking the Over 11.5 rebounds for Nurkic tonight. A number he has eclipsed in four straight.
My best bet: Jusuf Nurkic Over 11.5 rebounds (-115 at DraftKings)
Suns vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay
Jusuf Nurkic Over 11.5 rebounds
Anfernee Simons Under 3.5 threes
Under 231.5
As always, our same-game parlay tips off with our best bet, which for this Western Conference clash is Nurkic to go Over 11.5 rebounds. One of the reasons I like this bet is because the Trail Blazers put up a lot of shots but don’t hit a ton of them.
Speaking of that, the Suns' defense is at its best on the perimeter. They rank ninth in opponent 3-point attempts and eighth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. So, let’s add Anfernee Simons to go Under 3.5 made threes. Simons has hit a bit of a cold patch, going just 4-19 (21.1%) from deep over the last three games.
But Portland isn’t the only team that’s inefficient when it comes to shooting the basketball. And it may not seem like it but the Blazers aren’t a terrible team at the defensive end of the floor. They rank 19th in defensive rating and 18th in opponent-effective field goal percentage.
The Blazers and Suns also rank 24th and 26th respectively when it comes to pace, so let’s close this SGP out with the Under 231.5.
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Suns vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis
The Suns opened this Western Conference matchup as 7-point road favorites and they have seen the early action, moving the line to Phoenix -7.5.
The Suns are clearly the better roster here, but that has been the case most of the season and it hasn’t really mattered. Phoenix has covered just one spread over its last nine games and the Suns are 1-4 ATS when laying seven points or more this season.
The shooting woes have been the culprit and not having Bradley Beal for most of the season has been a big part of that. And with the Blazers’ scrappy nature on defense and the fact they are 8-6 ATS when getting seven points or more has me staying away from the spread here.
The total hit the board at 231.5, and some 231s are starting to pop up as of Tuesday afternoon. As noted above, I would lean toward the Under here and like it enough to add it to today’s SGP.
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Suns vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know
The Suns have played to the Under in four of their last six games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Trail Blazers.
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Suns vs Trail Blazers game info
| Location: | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 19, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Root Sports, AZ Family |
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