After a thrilling 2023-24 regular season and respective conference semifinal losses, the Oklahoma City Thunder will visit the Denver Nuggets to open the new season.
My Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions expect second-year big man Chet Holmgren to extend his streak of strong performances against Denver.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on his combo prop on Thursday.
Thunder vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Chet Holmgren Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Chet Holmgren was phenomenal as a rookie and would have won Rookie of the Year if not for the extraterrestrial Victor Wembanyama.
The Gonzaga product posted 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, good for 26.8 PRA across 82 rookie appearances. He hit the Over on this line in 58 of 82 games, good for a 70.7% rate.
Holmgren was even better when facing the Nuggets. In four games against the division rivals, he posted 19.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, good for 29.8 PRA. He hit the Over three times.
The Thunder added Isaiah Hartenstein in the offseason to play center with Holmgren expected to shift to PF. Hartenstein is dealing with a multi-week injury and backup big man Jaylin Williams is also sidelined, meaning Chet should face little competition for playing time in the frontcourt.
This line is offered at 25.5 across multiple sportsbooks, but I’m happy to take the 24.5 if you can get your hands on it. Denver’s frontcourt rotation is thin behind Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon, and Holmgren should be able to take advantage of a line set too low tonight.
Thunder vs Nuggets same-game parlay (SGP)
Chet Holmgren Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists
Aaron Gordon Over 5.5 rebounds
Russell Westbrook Over 16.5 points + rebounds + assists
Aaron Gordon has averaged 6.3 rebounds across 10 NBA seasons and averaged better than 5.5 in eight of those. He corralled 6+ boards in 50 of 73 games a season ago, including two of three against OKC.
In two games in which he played 30+ minutes, he averaged 11 boards. In one game hitting the Under, he logged just 23 minutes in a blowout. The Thunder allowed the fifth-most rebounds in the league last season and will be short on frontcourt depth for the opener.
Will the Russell Westbrook experiment work in Denver? Who knows, but I’ll happily take the Over on yet another line set far too low. Russ is past his prime, but he can still stuff the stat sheet with ease. Last season with the Clippers was one of his worst seasons statistically, and he still averaged 20.6 PRA and hit the Over in 51 of 68 contests.
Westbrook played only 22.5 minutes per game last season, but he could realistically play more after Denver lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson in the offseason. Denver’s rotation has thinned out in back-to-back seasons, and Russ should be the first guard off the bench.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Thunder vs Nuggets odds
Thunder vs Nuggets live odds
Get the latest Thunder vs Nuggets NBA odds.
Thunder vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City +2.5 | Denver -2.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City +110 | Denver -135
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Thunder vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma City finished 52-39-1 ATS last season, including a 9-8-1 mark as the road underdog.
- Denver went 43-49-2 ATS last season, including a 22-24-1 record as the home favorite.
- The Thunder went 47-42-3 to the Over last season, hitting the Over in 25 of 46 contests on the road.
- The Nuggets hit the Under in 55 of 94 games a season ago, going 19-28 to the Under as the home favorite.
Thunder vs Nuggets trend
These teams tied for the best regular-season record in the Western Conference last season at 57-25. Both teams went 33-8 at home and 24-17 on the road. OKC won the regular-season series 3-1 and came away victorious in two trips to Ball Arena. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Nuggets.
Thunder vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-24-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Thunder vs Nuggets latest injuries
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