Timberwolves vs Bucks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Edwards Exploits Bucks Weakness

Think back to the NBA preseason. The schedule was known, and the Minnesota Timberwolves were set to travel to face the Milwaukee Bucks just before the All-Star Break on the night of the trade deadline.

What would you have said if I told you one team was atop their conference while the other had difficulties navigating the results of a massive trade? You would have doubted the Timberwolves, right? Instead, no, it is the Bucks worried about their standing after trading for Damian Lillard.

Yet, Milwaukee is a short favorite in the NBA odds tonight, perhaps surprisingly so. Both teams have hit lulls of late, creating logjams for seeding that we can all stare at for the rest of the month before the regular season hits its home stretch.

With this rivalry matchup effectively a pick’em, betting on an ugly night feels like a smart approach in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview Timberwolves vs. Bucks on Thursday, February 8.

Timberwolves vs Bucks odds

Timberwolves vs Bucks predictions

This will not be the only time Doc Rivers and Chris Finch coach against each other this month, as they're also the Eastern and Western Conference coaches, respectively, for the All-Star Game. That has no bearing tonight, but it warrants mention simply because it is comical that Rivers has gone 1-4 while leading the Milwaukee Bucks, and yet, he will get that honor.

Looking specifically at Milwaukee’s five games with Rivers in charge, all on the road up until tonight, the Bucks have not surged in any regard. Hence that 1-4 record.

Milwaukee ranks No. 25 in offensive rating across the last five games and No. 15 in defensive rating. Obviously, there is a sample-size worry in those rankings, but it is mitigated in part by acknowledging two of the Bucks’ losses were at Portland and at Utah, hardly games that should have stressed them.

For reference, in the 46 games before Rivers sat down on Milwaukee’s bench, its offensive rating was No. 2 in the league at 120.4 and its defensive rating was No. 19 at 116.3. To simply this context, the team has been 7.6 points per 100 possessions worse under Rivers.

This is not meant as a defense of Rivers. If anything, his hire was uninspired and the firing of Adrian Griffin was rash and driven by the players, an approach that rarely pans out well in the NBA. That said, this should be the Bucks’ low. They will rally. There is too much talent on this roster not to.

Does that make tonight a buy low spot? Let’s avoid that endorsement, partly because some of the same thought could be said of the Minnesota Timberwolves. They have stumbled to 5-5 in their last 10, despite leading in all five of those losses in the fourth quarter.

Let’s target the total instead. Milwaukee’s offense has clearly plummeted under Rivers, probably partly because he knows he was brought in to fix the defense and has thus devoted attention to it. Scoring 8.1 fewer points per 100 possessions is a hefty number, sample-size worries notwithstanding.

Minnesota’s undoing has largely been its late-game offense, hardly an offensive juggernaut to start with that too often turns into the Detroit Pistons in clutch moments. The late-game issue has impacted the Timberwolves’ overall numbers. In their first 41 games, they ranked No. 19 in offensive rating at 114.4. In their last 10 games, that has fallen to 113.5.

That may seem a negligible slip, but realize it is almost entirely the result of five fourth quarters, exactly one-eighth of Minnesota’s minutes in that stretch. That is how bad those late-game moments have been, that such a small selection impacts the Timberwolves’ metrics by nearly a point per 100 possessions.

Tonight should be a close game. Rivers wants to focus on defense, to the detriment of Milwaukee’s offense. Minnesota’s offense might not exist late. Both those recent realities point this toward an Under.

My best bet: Under 226.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Timberwolves vs Bucks same-game parlay

Under 226.5

Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 points

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists

+510 at FanDuel

Even in a defensive slog, someone has to score. Pinpointing the source of those points creates a counter-intuitive same-game parlay with an elevated payout.

When going against the Bucks, bet on the opposing shooting guard to score. Devin Booker hung 32 points on Tuesday with backcourt mate Bradley Beal adding 25, not to mention Kevin Durant scoring 28.

Milwaukee’s perimeter defense is woeful. That was the cost of trading Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard as Khris Middleton ages with knee injuries. Giannis Antetokounmpo works too hard on offense to be a two-way force every night, and pretty quickly the roster relies on Malik Beasley for perimeter defense. Note: Malik Beasley is bad at defense.

Since Jan. 1, a simple cutoff date, nine guards have scored more than 30 points against Milwaukee in 19 games. Four more, including Beal, have come within a bucket of Edwards’ points prop tonight. No offense to the likes of Kevin Huerter and Bennedict Mathurin, but Anthony Edwards is becoming one of the league’s best scorers. They are not.

And some of Edwards’s buckets may come from Karl-Anthony Towns. They are not the most common connection in the Timberwolves’ offense, but one generally does open up the floor for the other.

The Towns assists prop on its own would be too juiced to ponder at -174, but in this design, including it raises the same-game parlay value by 84%. For a prop bet with implied odds of 63.5%, that boost is too rich to ignore.

Furthermore, Towns has handed out at least three assists in six of his last eight games and 11 of his last 18.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Timberwolves vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bucks opened as 1-point favorites on Wednesday night, with some books opening at -1.5 before coalescing at -1 by Thursday morning. If that line seems slim, again remember that Milwaukee has gone 1-4 under Rivers. Worse yet, it has gone 1-4 against the spread, falling short of expectations by 7.6 points per game in those four ATS losses.

This total opened at 228.5 late on Wednesday before dropping to 226.5 on Thursday morning. Chalk that up as the books simply hanging the wrong number out of the gates given the recent miseries of both these teams.

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Timberwolves vs Bucks betting trend to know

While this will be Rivers’ first home game in Milwaukee, a homecoming for the Marquette alum, it should still be noted that the Bucks are 10-16 ATS at home this season, including 2-7 in their last nine. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Bucks.

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