This season hasn’t gone as expected for the Minnesota Timberwolves, and as they try to stay in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference, they must take on a Memphis Grizzlies team that’s dominated at home.
Even with Ja Morant dealing with a foot injury, my Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies predictions expect Memphis’ depth and ability on both ends of the court to be the difference for this afternoon's NBA picks on Monday, January 20.
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet
Grizzlies -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It seems like nothing can shake Taylor Jenkins’ squad this season. Injuries continue to hit the Memphis Grizzlies with everyone from Ja Morant to Demond Bane to rookie Zach Edey missing time at various points.
Despite the string of injuries, Memphis has been unflappable. The Grizzlies have the third-highest cover percentage in the NBA (66.7%) and have covered in four straight games with three outright wins as underdogs.
While winning by six-plus with Morant banged up won’t be easy, this Minnesota Timberwolves team has done nothing but disappoint this season. They have the third-lowest cover percentage (39%) and are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, which includes going 1-3 ATS as an underdog.
Even with Anthony Edwards turning in another All-Star season, Minnesota is just 22nd in points per game (110.1) and its offense has struggled to make an impact inside the arc — hitting the third-fewest twos per game (24.1) and putting up the ninth-worst 2-point percentage (52.8%).
Leaning so heavily on threes should hurt the Wolves against a Memphis perimeter defense allowing opponents to hit just 34.9% from deep, fourth-best in the NBA. And it’s not as if Memphis is any easier to score on around the rim.
Led by Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizz sit fifth in defensive rating (109.7) and second in field-goal percentage allowed (44.9%). So even with Edwards bound to put up numbers, Minnesota will have a difficult time scoring enough to keep up with Memphis.
Jenkins’ team is first in the league in points per game (123.4) and fifth in offensive rating (117.6) behind the play of Jackson, Morant, and Bane. But even if Morant doesn’t play, this team has wild depth to lean on.
Rookie Jaylen Wells has been one of the biggest finds of the 2024 NBA Draft, and players like Scotty Pippen Jr. and Santi Aldama have provided quality play off the bench. That’s why this team is fifth in the league in field-goal percentage (48.5%) and Top 10 in threes made (14.2), twos made (31.1), and free-throws made (18.7).
Between Memphis’ depth and Minnesota’s offensive struggles, the Grizzlies are poised to cover for the 29th time this year.
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Grizzlies -5.5
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 2.5 steals + blocks
Anthony Edwards Over 38.5 points + rebounds + assists
Jackson anchors Memphis on both ends of the court and the former Defensive Player of the Year will be in a position to juice his numbers against Minnesota. The 25-year-old is averaging 3.2 steals and blocks per game and has gone for 3+ in 26 of 40 games this year (65%).
Memphis will need him holding it down on the defensive end to help contain Minnesota’s other scorers with the way Edwards is bound to pop off. The two-time All-Star is averaging 36.2 points, rebounds, and assists per game with his 3-point shooting being an X-factor this season — he’s second in the league in threes per game (4.3).
Edwards has upped his game in January too, averaging 30.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 5.3 APG — all the most of any month this season.
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Timberwolves vs Grizzlies odds
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies live odds
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +3 (-110) | Memphis -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +125 | Memphis -150
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Grizzlies opened as a 3-point favorite, and even with Morant’s availability a question, the line has moved another 2.5 points in Memphis’ direction (-5.5).
- Memphis has one of the best ATS records in the NBA at 28-14 while Minnesota is among the worst at 16-25-1.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 233.5, with most books now offering it at 235.5 as tip approaches.
- The Grizzlies are the second-best Over team in the NBA at 27-15 with the Timberwolves in the bottom half of the league at 21-21.
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies trend
The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the spread in 51 of their last 82 games (+16.90 Units / 19% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Grizzlies
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Monday, 1-20-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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