Warriors vs Grizzlies Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Kuminga's Heater Continues

I don’t think anyone would have predicted that at the halfway point of the season the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies would both find themselves on the outside of the play-in tournament looking in. But here they are, with the Warriors still fighting and the Grizzlies having called it a wrap on the season weeks ago.

This was one of the NBA’s burgeoning rivalries, but unfortunately, its potency has been sapped by the outrageous number of injuries the Grizzlies have suffered to key players and the overall decline of the Warriors.

Still, the Warriors are desperate for wins right now, and the Grizzlies' “Bad News Bears” style roster is eager to carve out a place for themselves in the league. That alone could make this Friday, February 2 matchup more entertaining than it has any right to be.

My NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Grizzlies believe Jonathan Kuminga’s NBA odds are being sorely undervalued tonight.

Warriors vs Grizzlies odds

Warriors vs Grizzlies predictions

Sometimes the squeaky wheel really does get the grease. 

Jonathan Kuminga was languishing on the Golden State Warriors bench yet again this season, and despite making productive contributions whenever he got his name called, it seemed that Steve Kerr simply didn’t trust him. That lack of trust boiled over when Kuminga sat the entire fourth quarter in their January 4 game against the Denver Nuggets despite his stellar play.

Reports leaked to the media claimed that Kuminga “had lost faith” in Kerr. Whether one agrees with the tactic of advocating for playing time through the media, it got results.

Kuminga is playing the most minutes of his career, scoring the most points, and doing it all incredibly efficiently. Kuminga’s career scoring average is 10.9 points, for the season he’s up to 14.8, but over his last seven games he’s averaging 25.1 points on an outrageous 69.5% true shooting.

Kuminga is a mega athlete, and his burst and slashing ability are both things that this aging Warriors team has desperately needed. His ability to explode off one or two feet and finish through contact is unreal. His speed on the break allows the Warriors to revive their once-vaunted transition attack as well.

He’s easily the team’s best foul drawer. Per Cleaning the Glass, he draws fouls on 17.4% of his shot attempts, which puts him in the 97th percentile among all forwards. He’s leveraging his physical gifts with a growing level of on-ball craft that makes you see why the Warriors think he has a chance to be an All-Star someday.

And he’s not a one-trick pony. He’s become a quality outside shooter as well, shooting 40% from downtown in January. Now that he has enough court time to get a rhythm, he’s in an incredible offensive flow. 

That particular mix of skills makes him a problematic matchup for the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are on a back-to-back, and sorely lacking in the kind of wing defender that can match Kuminga’s combination of size and speed. They’re also vulnerable to 3-point shooting, so he should have his chances from deep.

More than anything, these Jonathan Kuminga odds are not reflective of his newly-established role. It seems clear that Kuminga’s average production is going to settle in a couple of points above this prop, even if he didn’t have the advantages he will on Friday.

My best bet: Jonathan Kuminga Over 20.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)

Warriors vs Grizzlies same-game parlay

Jonathan Kuminga Over 20.5 points 

Steph Curry 5+ made threes

Total points Over 223

+314 at FanDuel

While it would be intuitive to think that Draymond Green’s return would have a bigger impact on Golden State’s defense than its offense, the opposite has been true. Draymond has had an organizing effect on the Warriors they were desperately missing when both he and Chris Paul were out. 

Their offensive rating of 126.3 over the last four games is tied for the best mark in the Association in that span, and with the Grizzlies shorthanded and on a back-to-back, I think the Warriors do enough to push this Over 223.

Part of my reasoning for the Over in addition to Kuminga’s burgeoning offense is that with Green’s return, Steph Curry looks like his Finals MVP self again. Curry has hit five or more threes in five of his last six games and has had 17 collectively in just his past two. 

Steph is on fire yet again, and with Green back to direct the offense he’s regularly getting up a dozen or more attempts per game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis

Golden State opened between -4.5 and -5.5 points favorites at most sportsbooks, and that’s risen to -6.5 pretty much universally in the time since.

Golden State’s season slowly began to turn around as soon as Green returned to the floor. In the minutes that Green has played, they’re well outperforming opponents, while getting crushed in the minutes he sits. Green remains as central to the Warriors' chances past, present, and future as anyone save Steph.

That they’ve lost a few close ones recently stings for their playoff chances, but it has overshadowed what has been strong play for a couple of weeks now. They have by far the best offense in the past two weeks despite their 2-2 record and a bad, but not disastrously bad defense.

Despite a disjointed season overall they have been consistently strong on the road. They’re 11-7 against the spread in road games this season. Memphis in turn is just 5-8 ATS as home dogs.

Oddsmakers believe this will be a game defined by defense, with the total opening at just 225.5, and early money pushing that as far down as 222.5 at some sportsbooks.

Memphis has played in more Unders than all but two teams in the NBA, which speaks equally to their defensive grit as it does to their offensive ineptitude. Despite all the injuries, the Grizzlies are still a borderline Top-10 defense. 

All of that has seen this line come in low, and with early betting pushing it down another couple of points, I think it’s low enough that banking on the Warriors' recently-elite offense starts to make sense.

The Over has cashed in 27 of the Warriors' 44 games this season, the second-highest mark in the Association.

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Warriors vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Over is 27-17 in the Warriors' last 44 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Grizzlies.

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