The Indiana Pacers will look to grow their winning streak to five games as they host the Golden State Warriors at Gainbridge Fieldhouse tonight.
Golden State enters the second half of a back-to-back and has several ailing players, which is why I’m taking Indiana to cover in my Warriors vs. Pacers predictions.
Keep reading below for a full analysis of this matchup in my free NBA picks for Friday, January 10.
Warriors vs Pacers prediction
My best bet
Pacers -8 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Indiana Pacers have been playing some of their best basketball of the season in the new year, going 4-0 and covering in all four contests over the past eight days. And while that schedule has led to some bumps and bruises, both Tyrese Haliburton (ankle) and Myles Turner (illness) were able to benefit from Thursday’s day off.
Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors haven't been afforded that same break. The Warriors went to Detroit last night and barely beat the Pistons 107-104, and they now have to deal with the Pacers in the second half of a back-to-back. That could be a significant problem for a team that is already shorthanded, with Jonathan Kuminga, Andrew Wiggins, and Moses Moody among the many players who had to sit last night.
That complicates matters on Friday, as both Steph Curry and Draymond Green have typically sat for the second half of back-to-back games this year. Even with the depleted roster, Curry has made comments suggesting that he’s still unlikely to play back-to-backs for the time being. While the expectation seems to be that Green will play, his impact may be limited given the lack of rest.
That’s more than enough for me to fade the Warriors tonight. Golden State is no longer the offensive dynamo it has been in recent years, ranking just 18th in offensive rating this season. Outside of Curry, who remains a dangerous — if somewhat less consistent — scoring threat, there’s a noticeable lack of firepower on the roster to threaten a Pacers team that has allowed teams to shoot 47.7% from the field this year.
Although Indiana has injury concerns of its own, most of its key players are expected to play in tonight’s game. The day off should mean that both Haliburton and Turner are available and at least close to full strength, while leading scorer Pascal Siakam (19.8 ppg) and Bennedict Mathurin (16.4 ppg) are ready to go.
That’s just too much talent for a depleted, tired, and injury-prone Warriors roster to contend with tonight.
Warriors vs Pacers same-game parlay
Pacers -7.5
Under 223.5
Buddy Hield Under 18.5 points
Both teams are riding two-game Under streaks heading into this game, and the total is a couple of points too high — especially considering that these teams combined for just 216 points (and hit the Under easily) in their first meeting.
I’ll also take Buddy Hield to come in Under his scoring total of 19.5 points tonight. Hield will see his role expanded tonight in the second game of a back-to-back with several Warriors likely to sit, but asking for him to reach 20 points is still a tall order. The veteran guard hasn’t done so in a single game since December 8 and has only reached 20+ points seven times all season.
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Warriors vs Pacers odds
Warriors vs Pacers live odds
Warriors vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +6 (-110) | Indiana -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Golden State +200 | Indiana -245
- Over/Under: Over 224 (-110) | Under 224 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Warriors are 18-18-1 against the spread this season, while the Pacers have an 18-19-1 ATS record.
- Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Golden State.
- The Over holds a 21-15-2 edge when the Pacers have played this year, with the Under having the 21-16 edge in the Warriors’ games.
- Golden State is averaging a total of 222.6 ppg this year, with Indiana coming into this game with an average total of 231.6 ppg.
Warriors vs Pacers trend
Indiana is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Pacers.
How to watch Warriors vs Pacers
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana |
| Date: | Friday, 1-10-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, FDSN, SN |
Warriors vs Pacers latest injuries
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