Deciphering motivation becomes more and more difficult in the season’s final days, but it is clear the Warriors still have reason to win.
They are trying to hold off the Mavs in pursuit of the three-seed in the West and a chance to open the playoffs against the weary Nuggets. Golden State should get that win tonight against the Spurs.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Warriors at the Spurs on April 9, with tip set for 8:30 ET.
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Warriors vs Spurs odds
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The Warriors opened as 6.5-point favorites late Friday night, and while that bounced between -5.5 and -7.0 throughout Saturday morning, the line settled at -6.5 in the afternoon. The total hit the boards at 221.5 early Saturday and briefly spiked as high as 224.0 by mid-morning. It then quickly fell to 220.0 and eventually all the way down to 219.0.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Warriors vs Spurs predictions
- Prediction: Warriors -6.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 219.5 (-112)
- Best bet: Warriors first half -3.5 (-110)
Predictions made on 4/08/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Warriors vs Spurs game info
• Location: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
• Date: Saturday, April 9, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV, Bally Sports, NBCS-BAY
Warriors vs Spurs betting preview
Key injuries
Warriors: Jordan Poole SG (Out), Klay Thompson SG (Out), Steph Curry SG (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Spurs: Romeo Langford SG (Questionable), Jock Landale C (Probable), Lonnie Walker IV SG (Probable), Jakob Poeltl C (Out), Devin Vassell SG (Out), Keldon Johnson SF (Out), Dejounte Murray PG (Out), Doug McDermott SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games, beating the spread by an average of 6.1 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Spurs.
Warriors vs Spurs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Spurs could have something to play for tonight and if they are watching the scoreboard, they should have an idea of its viability just before tip.
If the Grizzlies beat the Pelicans, San Antonio will still have a narrow shot at moving into the nine-seed in the West and hosting a play-in game. But given the Spurs’ availability report on Friday, that does not appear to be a priority.
San Antonio’s four leading scorers across the last 15 games are all out tonight. The Spurs may have found a sweet spot of both tanking and resting for the playoffs. As counter-intuitive as that sounds, that is the needle San Antonio is threading. The Spurs are 34-46 this season, in the mix with the Knicks (36-45) and the Wizards (35-46) for lottery odds.
Losing the next two games keeps San Antonio’s chances for a top-four pick at 20.2 percent, more than 6 percent better than the next slot. Losing those two games will not keep the Spurs out of the play-in, giving their young roster a chance at valuable experience, and then losing just one of the two play-in games would trigger those lottery odds.
Winning both those play-in games would still be preferable for Gregg Popovich, hence the resting of Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl tonight. Meanwhile, the Warriors want the three-seed. Neither the Nuggets nor the Jazz look particularly sound at the moment, so maybe the first-round matchup is negligible, but avoiding the Suns until the Western Conference Finals could be crucial.
There is no way to portray this matchup as an even one in normal times. Despite their revolving door of available superstars, the Warriors have put together a season-long differential of +5.3 points per game. In time, this will be praised as one of Steve Kerr’s better coaching jobs.
As well as Popovich has fared with his own limited set of assets, the Spurs’ net differential of +0.3 points per game is probably sugarcoating their genuine competence. Bet on the better team with more motivation. This does not always need to be complicated.
Prediction: Warriors -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Of the available Spurs, the leading scorer across their last 15 games is Josh Richardson at 12.9 points per game. If you had forgotten Richardson was in San Antonio, you are not alone.
He was a piece of the trade that sent Derrick White to Boston. When your best offensive piece is better known as a defensive asset, it does not bode well for your scoring.
Of available Warriors, only Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga have averaged double digits in their last 15 games. Now add in some ambivalence befitting the last weekend of the year and San Antonio’s subtle tanking. There is little reason to expect an abundance of points tonight.
Prediction: Under 219.5 (-112 at BetRivers)
Best bet
These last two days of games are tricky to handicap. As much as the Spurs are threading this needle of contending for the playoffs while still tanking, their few active players may remember that former aspect in the fourth quarter, at which point the Warriors may also be letting off the gas in a sure win.
Backdoor covers strike a particular fear this time of year. Instead, let’s fade Joshua Primo and Keita Bates-Diop from the outset. Yes, those are key pieces in San Antonio’s attack tonight. Both have combined for only 18 points in the last four games.
It is hard to imagine they come out scorching for the Spurs, and for San Antonio to keep up out of the gates, they will need to. Both are expected to start tonight. When Primo and Bates-Diop are NBA starters, take the other side to cover the first half.
Pick: Warriors first half -3.5 (-110 at Caesars)
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