The Golden State Warriors have a hold of the final play-in spot in the Western Conference but have just a one game lead heading into the final stretch of the regular season. They'll look to build on their positioning on Sunday as they travel to take on the San Antonio Spurs, who have surprisingly won three straight despite being the Western Conference's worst team.
Can Stephen Curry and the Warriors rise to the occasion on Easter Sunday and win as the NBA odds favorites, or will Victor Wembanayama and San Antonio bury their hopes?
Continue reading my free NBA picks for the Warriors vs Spurs matchup on Sunday, March 31.
Warriors vs Spurs predictions
My best bet: Spurs +8.5 (-105 at bet365)
With less than ten games to go, the Golden State Warriors find themselves with their backs against the walls when it comes to the playoff race. They currently sit tenth in the Western Conference and in possession of the last (and toughest) spot of the play-in tournament with the Rockets just one game behind them.
Just a week ago this matchup with the San Antonio Spurs seemed like a win they could count on, but the now 18-win Spurs are looking feisty after three straight wins — two coming against the Suns and the Knicks, teams that have been tangibly better than the Warriors this season.
To that point, Golden State is just 15th in net rating on the year with an 11th ranked offensive rating and 15th ranked defensive rating. Where it's struggled compared to years past is its decreased shot-making ability, ranking 14th in effective field goal percentage a year after finishing third.
This Spurs team is not just a team that has won as of late, it's the same team the Warriors managed to just split a home-and-home set earlier this month. San Antonio has been incredibly impressive on defense spanning during and since those games, ranking ninth in the NBA in defensive rating despite ranking 22nd on the year.
But it's not just on the defensive front that things have been clicking, it's been everywhere. They rank eight in rebounding rate and second in assist percentage. In fact on offense they've looked much more cohesive, ranking second in offensive rating during this stretch.
Sure, the Spurs have been a team the rest of the league has walked on for almost the entire year but the San Antonio suiting up on Sunday is one with new life.
Warriors vs Spurs same-game parlay
Spurs +8.5
Stephen Curry 30+ points
Tre Jones Over 0.5 assists
While the Warriors may struggle more than they and most will anticipate, one person who may not struggle is Stephen Curry. The Spurs have allowed the most points to opposing point guards this year (26.8), and the gap between them and the second-worst team is as large of a gap between the second-worst and tenth-worst team.
But on the opposite end of that matchup, we may see Tre Jones pick Stephen Curry and Chris Paul's pockets a decent amount on Sunday night. Given that Tre Jones' steal line is at 0.5, there is good opportunity here.
The Warriors allow the fifth-most steals to opposing point guards, and neither of their ball-handlers have been clean on that front as of late. Curry has had just one turnover-less game this year and he has had a multi-turnover game in all but six games since February.
Chris Paul has had a better track record over the course of the full season but as of late he has been a bit sloppy, having averaged 2.2 turnovers in his last five games despite averaging just over half of that on the season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Warriors vs Spurs odds and trends
Warriors vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Golden State -8.5 | San Antonio +8.5
- Moneyline: Golden State -349 | San Antonio +296
- Over/Under: Over 227 | Under 227
Warriors vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at Warriors -8.5 and has stayed there.
- Golden State is 40-32-1 against the spread while the Spurs are 38-36
- Warriors games have went Under the total in four of the last five
- After opening at 227, the total is between 226.5 and 227.5 across the board
Warriors vs Spurs betting trend to know
The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 80 games (+20.45 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Spurs.
Warriors vs Spurs game info
| Location: | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, March 31, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Bay Area, Bally Southwest |
Not intended for use in MA.
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