Alabama vs Arizona Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tide Roll From Long Range

What a way to close out Wednesday’s college basketball slate.

It’s the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. the No. 4 Arizona Wildcats, a battle of two of the Top 3 scoring offenses in college basketball, squaring off at Jerry Colangelo's Hall of Fame Series in Phoenix. 

The Wildcats are coming off their first loss of the season to fall from the top of the rankings, losing to current no. 1 Purdue.

That hasn’t stopped the books from pinning them as healthy 7.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds.

I’ve got my free college basketball picks and best bet for December 20 below — can the Crimson Tide snap a two-game slide as they take on their third Top-10 team in a row?

Alabama vs Arizona best odds

Alabama vs Arizona picks and predictions

If there’s a recipe for beating Arizona, Purdue just shared it in its 92-84 win over the previously unbeaten Wildcats.

The combination of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer lit Arizona on fire from distance, combining to go 9-for-16 from beyond the arc, part of an overall 41.7% performance from 3-point range to hang on to the win.

Despite the loss, Arizona is still exceptionally strong, sporting a Top-6 ranking in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric, and third in defensive efficiency.

The Wildcats are putting up 92.9 points per game, one of just six teams in the nation that crack the 90-point plateau ('Bama being one of the others at 92.1).

Sharing is caring at ‘Zona, who leads college hoops with 21.9 assists per game, and ranks 10th in total rebounding.

It shoots a sparkling 51.5% rate from the field, and the defense allows teams a 45.1% clip, the 292nd-ranked mark in the NCAA.

If there’s one place where the Wildcats don’t really push the pedal, it’s from 3-point range, where they average just 21.1 attempts per game, way down at 231st in the nation, which sort of offsets their Top-20 make rate of 38.9%.

Hmmm… Now, if there was just a team that was able to light it up from distance, using the Purdue blueprint, to go toe-to-toe with Arizona’s potent offense…

Enter Alabama, who shoot the moneyball at a 39.1% rate (18th), on just under 28 attempts per contest — a Top-30 mark in the NCAA.

That made last game a definite outlier, as the Crimson Tide dropped an 85-82 decision to eighth-ranked Creighton, as Alabama shot a grim 4-for-22 from distance, a lowly 18.2% figure.

Compare that when they went toe-to-toe with Purdue (then ranked fourth) before bowing out in a 92-86 loss, where they went berserk behind the arc, drilling 19-for-46, a sparkling 41.3%.

Look for Alabama to find the range Wednesday. I don’t know if they win, as Arizona is so solid offensively, but that 3-point shooting should keep it close.

My best bet: Alabama +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Alabama vs Arizona same-game parlay

Alabama +7.5

Mark Sears Over 17.5 points

Under 173.5

20% boost available

+485 +582 at DraftKings

We’ll target Alabama’s leading scorer to build out a same-game parlay. Mark Sears is having himself a start to the season, averaging 21.2 points on 56% shooting from the floor and 48.1% from distance, all career highs.

The senior guard has topped his 17.5 scoring total set for Wednesday in four of the last five games, and has held his own against Top-10 competition.

Sears torched Purdue for a season-best 35 points, including a blistering 8-for-16 mark from 3-point land, and followed that up with 19 points on 9-for-16 shooting against Creighton. 

I expect him to find that groove for a third straight challenge against top-tier opposition.

We’ll go with strict math and probabilities for our last leg, as hitting 174 points is no small feat in college hoops — even for the most prolific scoring teams.

This will be the highest line set for either of these teams this season. Arizona has actually only gone over this total twice this year, including last game against Purdue.

Alabama — KenPom’s top-rated in offensive efficiency — has seen the Over go 8-2-0 in its games, but it’s hit 174 just four times.

Arizona has a defense that allows 67 points a game. If they can even stay within even 15 points of that, this should stay Under the total.

Even better, you can use DraftKings' Stepped Up Parlay bonus to rake in even more winnings on this SGP tonight!

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Alabama vs Arizona spread and Over/Under analysis

The Wildcats have gone as high as 7.5-point favorites on the spread. Any spreads offering Arizona in the -6 range are long gone.

On the year, they’re an exceptional 8-2-0 against the spread, including 7-1-0 ATS as the betting favorite. The Crimson Tide are just 5-5-0 ATS this season and have yet to cover in three neutral-site games this season.

As for the total, you just don’t see many matchups with this high of a line. 

At one point Tuesday, you could have found this total as high as 176.5 points, but it’s settled as far down as 172.5 at Caesars Sportsbook as of writing.

Alabama vs Arizona betting trend to know

Each of Alabama's last 15 neutral site night games have gone Under 173 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Arizona.

Alabama vs Arizona game info

Alabama vs Arizona key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic