The No. 3 Arizona Wildcats take on the No. 19 Michigan State Spartans in the inaugural Acrisure Classic on Thanksgiving Day. This should be a terrific matchup at a neutral site between a pair of college basketball powerhouses.
The 5-0 Wildcats will look to keep steamrolling opponents while the Spartans are aiming for a statement win as they look to climb the rankings. College basketball odds have the Wildcats as 5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 147.5. Here are my free college basketball picks for Arizona vs. Michigan State on Thursday, November 23.
Arizona vs Michigan State best odds
Arizona vs Michigan State picks and predictions
Arizona has been destroying teams, going 5-0 straight up and against the spread with an average scoring margin of +36.6 points per game. Granted many of those opponents have been mid-major schools, but it also impressively beat Duke 78-73 in Durham.
Michigan State's toughest test also came against Duke but the Spartans lost 74-65 at Cameron Indoor Stadium. They also began their season with another loss when they were upset as 16.5-point home favorites against James Madison.
MSU entered this season with high expectations after returning four starters and sixth-man Malik Hall from a team that made it to the Sweet 16 last year, while also signing five-star big man Xavier Booker. However, Booker has been a non-factor and those returning players have struggled to score outside of guard Tyson Walker.
Walker has been filling up the hoop with 23.0 ppg on 53.8% shooting, but the rest of the lineup has struggled to consistently get buckets and he's due for regression with such a sky-high shooting percentage. Guard A.J. Hoggard averaged 12.9 points and 5.9 assists per game last year while shooting 41.7% from the field, but this season he's averaging just 8.0 ppg on 29.5% shooting.
The Spartans have been better on the defensive end of the floor, and even in that defeat to James Madison (who is now ranked in the Top 25) they limited the Dukes to 37% shooting. The problem is that this Arizona team has so many weapons and can score in so many ways that it should be able to unlock just about every defense.
The Wildcats have six players averaging more than 11.0 ppg. Their ability to run the floor in transition, move the ball in the halfcourt, space the floor with shooters, and attack the rim with multiple players will make them very tough to stop. They also have a pair of skilled seven footers who can score inside with Oumar Ballo and Motiejus Krivas.
The fact that they can have at least one of those big men on the floor at all times means they should exploit Michigan State's weakness at center. The Spartans have been getting virtually no offense from centers Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper, and they've also been getting beaten on the glass.
That's bad news against an Arizona squad that leads the country with a rebounding rate of 63.8% and had a +12 rebounding margin against an imposing Duke frontcourt. The Wildcats have been scoring at will but they're also seventh in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and should be able to take advantage of Michigan State's flaws on both ends of the floor.
My best bet: Arizona -4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Arizona vs Michigan State same-game parlay
Arizona -4.5
Keshad Johnson Over 12.5 points
Keshad Johnson Over 5.5 rebounds
Since Arizona has so many blowout wins this season, it's important to look at that competitive game against Duke to figure out what the minutes distribution will be like against better competition.
Forward Keshad Johnson led Arizona with 34 minutes, 14 field goal attempts, and 14 points, while tying for the team lead with eight rebounds. The transfer from San Diego State leads the team in rebounding (6.4 rpg) while ranking second in scoring (13.4 ppg) despite averaging just 20.5 mpg in his other four games.
Expect Johnson to log plenty of minutes against a strong MSU lineup and bet on him to go Over both his points and rebounds totals.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arizona vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis
While some books opened this line with Arizona at -4.5, they quickly moved that spread to -5 or -5.5. The total has ticked up from 146 to as high as 147.5.
The Wildcats are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS this year. They dominated the non-conference part of their schedule last year as well but looked more vulnerable in Pac-12 play and were eventually upset in the first round of the NCAA tournament by Princeton.
The Spartans were 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in their first three games of the season but have easily covered the spread in their last two victories, beating Belmont by 20 points and smashing Alcorn State by 32 points despite the absence of Walker.
While Arizona plays at an extremely fast pace and has been scoring at a terrific rate, the total might be a tad high here. Keep in mind that the Spartans play at a much slower tempo and have been better defensively than offensively.
The Under has also cashed in four straight games for MSU while going 3-1 in Arizona's previous four contests. It's also worth mentioning KenPom is projecting a total of 143 points and books are typically within a couple of points within the range of their projections.
Arizona vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Arizona has hit the first half Over in 21 of its last 35 games (+6.10 Units / 15% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Michigan State.
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Arizona vs Michigan State game info
| Location: | Acrisure Arena, Palm Desert, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, November 23, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Arizona vs Michigan State key injuries
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