Neither the Baylor Bears nor the TCU Horned Frogs have a chance at winning the Big 12 this regular season, but both are still very much in the mix for high seeds in next month’s NCAA Tournament. A TCU win tonight could conceivably propel the Frogs toward a Top-4 seed.
However, Baylor is the better of the two teams, objectively speaking, even if it did lose to TCU in triple overtime a month ago.
Looking at that 105-102 result, an offensive emphasis tonight makes too much sense to not lean into in our free college basketball picks as we preview Baylor vs. TCU on February 26, with tip set for 9:00 ET.
Baylor vs TCU best odds
Baylor vs TCU picks and predictions
Offenses don’t come much better than that of the TCU Horned Frogs. The Baylor Bears have a rare one that does.
Some folks don’t notice how effective the Bears offense is because of how slow it prefers to operate, in the bottom quarter of the country in pace and No. 13 in the Big 12, trailed by only Houston.
Baylor’s offense hums loudest when it's hitting its 3-pointers, which is often, given a 40.3% 3-point rate that stands No. 2 in the country, behind only Kentucky. However, the Wildcats do not spend as much time behind the arc as the Bears, emphasizing their 3-point shooting preference and prowess.
That alone should always create an Over thought when discussing Baylor. Of course, that shooting is baked into the total by the sportsbook, but that offense will prefer a high-scoring night; despite relatively lofty totals, the Bears are still 14-12 to the Over this season.
TCU’s offense shoots the three well, but it doesn’t like to, taking fewer than 30% of its field goal attempts from deep. Instead, the Frogs like to speed things up, forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds to enhance their offense. In both regards, Baylor is susceptible, rather average in both categories.
Logic argues one should trust the home team’s playing style, assume TCU will set tonight’s pace and create some frenetic opportunities. That will keep the Frogs’ offense in range of the Bears’, and elevating the slightly lesser of these two strong offenses should eliminate any Under worries in Fort Worth.
Furthermore, when these two met a month ago, their triple-overtime thriller was 3.5 points past its total before the added time, and that came on an afternoon in which Baylor shot just 5-for-22 from beyond the arc, its third-worst showing of the Big 12 season.
If even that game cleared its total, there is little reason to doubt this rematch will, too.
My best bet: Over 148 (-110 at DraftKings) 50% boost available
Baylor vs TCU same-game parlay
Over 148
TCU -2.5
Jameer Nelson Jr. Over 11.5 points
30% boost available
Baylor knows it let a chance slip by on Saturday. The overtime loss to No. 2 Houston always looked like a loss; the Cougars led nearly wire-to-wire and felt inevitable most of the afternoon.
But the Bears had their chances. Losing that game and now heading to a hostile environment some 56 hours later may be a bit too tight of a turnaround.
That hostile environment has gladly welcomed Jameer Nelson Jr. Now onto his third school, the Delaware transfer has fit in right away at TCU. He struggles to shoot from deep, but that is the only flaw in Nelson’s game these days.
If the Horned Frogs keep the pace up tonight, that will be most emphasized in Nelson’s numbers.
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Baylor vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis
Baylor’s Saturday loss lingered in memories when some sportsbooks opened this game with the Bears as 3-point underdogs on Sunday afternoon. By Sunday night, this spread had flashed to +2 before largely settling at +2.5.
On Monday, a solid portion of the odds board returned to +2.
Tonight’s total saw less movement, opening at 148.5 on Sunday afternoon and returning there after jumping to 149.5 on Sunday evening and even falling to 147.5 early Monday morning.
Baylor vs TCU betting trend to know
TCU is 5-2 against the spread at home in Big 12 play. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. TCU.
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Baylor vs TCU game info
| Location: | Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Monday, February 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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