Butler vs Penn State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defenses Step Up to Go Below Generous Total

The Butler Bulldogs will visit the Penn State Nittany Lions in a battle between undefeated college basketball programs on Monday night.

Penn State has blown out its first two opponents, but will face a significant step up in competition against Butler. The Bulldogs have played just once this season, beating the New Orleans Privateers by 36 points last Monday.

While neither team got any love in the preseason rankings, these are two proud programs that will both be using tonight’s game to get an early feel for where they stand this season. We’ll break down which side will come out on top in our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Butler vs. Penn State.

Butler vs Penn State best odds

Butler vs Penn State picks and predictions

Neither Butler nor Penn State accomplished much last year, with both schools winning just 14 games and failing to make postseason appearances. However, the early results from this year suggest these should both be solid teams, even if they’re far from national title contenders.

Butler stormed out of the gate in its 89-53 blowout over New Orleans. Center Manny Bates led the team with 25 points and 11 rebounds, while five players scored in double digits in the win. In a way, the most impressive stat might have been that the Bulldogs only went 4-for-24 from 3-point range. With good shooters all over the court, Butler may be an even more formidable offensive squad than last Monday’s rout suggested.

Penn State showed it can score in its first two wins as well. The Nittany Lions scored 93 against the Winthrop Eagles, then put up 90 points against the Loyola Greyhounds. In its early action, Penn State has been spreading the ball around, with fight guards each scoring 10 points or more per game. Senior guard Jalen Pickett has led the way with 14 ppg, and should see his numbers rise as Penn State tightens its rotation against stiffer competition.

These offensive outputs may just be an artifact of playing weak competition to start the season. Last year, the Nittany Lions averaged just 64.6 points per game, with Butler coming in at 63.8 ppg. Both teams also allowed opponents to score well under 70 points per night. There’s little reason to think that either school has dramatically changed its approach or talent level between seasons, either.

But oddsmakers looked at the early performances and set a fairly high total on this game, and bettors have only taken the number higher. As of noon on Monday, you can find the main Over/Under as high as 144.5 at some sites.

That number is way too high based on the limited information we have this season. If we’re going to take the big numbers that Butler and Penn State have put up on offense as gospel, we also have to note that Butler allowed just 53 points to New Orleans, while the Nittany Lions are giving up 67.5 ppg so far.

In reality, we have far too little data to base our bets on the numbers from the first couple games of the season. These are not two teams that will run and gun against better competition, and 144.5 is a total based on an overreaction to the first week of play against cupcake opponents. I’m picking the Under as my best bet.

My best bet: Under 144.5 (-108 at BetRivers)

Butler vs Penn State spread analysis

On Sunday, Penn State opened this game as a 9.5-point favorite. However, bettors have hammered the Bulldogs, bringing the consensus line down to Penn State -5.5 as of noon on Monday.

With blowout wins across the board, both teams have covered in their early matchups this year. The public is likely backing Butler tonight simply because the spread was too large for two teams that we have very little confidence about this early in the season. 

The Bulldogs have historically been the better program — they made the finals of the NCAA Tournament in both 2010 and 2011, and have made the tournament as recently as 2018 — and should improve thanks to the addition of graduate transfer Manny Bates, who got little playing time with the North Carolina State Wolfpack last season. 

Personally, I want to stay off the spread and moneyline bets on tonight’s game. We’re talking about two middling teams from last season that have made some improvements for this year, but we haven’t seen enough yet to truly evaluate. 

If you want to bet on this game, my advice is to take Butler +5.5. The Bulldogs have made the more obvious offseason upgrades, and they don’t deserve to be a large underdog to Penn State, even on the road. However, I think laying off this game entirely is probably the smarter play.

Butler vs Penn State Over/Under analysis

Most sites opened their total for tonight’s game at 140. However, bettors have taken that Over/Under all the way up to 144.5, likely after looking at the scores from both teams’ early games. 

I can understand the temptation to bet the Over, but as my analysis above pointed out, there’s little reason to think that these teams are going to play high-tempo basketball this season. Even in a blowout, Butler only played its first game to a total of 142 points. Granted, Penn State has played to higher numbers, but this will be the first real test for both teams, and we should expect a much tighter game.

In my opinion, sportsbooks made a reasonable reaction to the early season numbers when setting the total as high as 140. That is already about 5-10 points higher than you would have seen an Over/Under on these teams last year. The fact that bettors wanted to go even higher is a massive overreaction to a couple of games worth of data.

Had the total stayed at 140, I probably would have liked the Under, but it would have been a much tougher decision. With the total at a robust 144.5, the Under is definitely the play to make tonight.

Butler vs Penn State betting trend to know

Butler is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Butler vs. Penn State.

Butler vs Penn State game info

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