Two teams in need of impressive conference tournament runs to have any hope of getting into March Madness will face off today as the Butler Bulldogs take on the Providence Friars in the opening round of the Big East Tournament.
The Friars covered in both regular season matchups, and I’m taking them to win outright in my Butler vs. Providence predictions below.
Read on to see my full analysis of this Big East battle in my free college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 12.
Butler vs Providence prediction
Who will win Butler vs Providence?
Both teams come into this game ice cold, as Butler has lost five of its last six games while Providence has dropped nine of 10. That has me looking at how these teams have competed against each other, and the Friars have gotten the best of those two earlier matchups, winning easily at home and nearly getting another win back in Indiana. Based on those results, Providence is my pick to win and move on to play the St. John’s Red Storm in the next round.
My best bet: Providence moneyline (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
When we’re dealing with two teams that have been struggling so much in the late part of the season, it’s hard to evaluate who has the advantage heading into the postseason.
The Butler Bulldogs rate out slightly better in advanced metrics, but the Providence Friars had the clear advantage when these teams faced off in the regular season, winning by 19 at home and losing by just one on the road.
While both teams are offensively-minded, defense has been a particular concern for the Bulldogs. Butler is allowing 73.8 points per game this season, a number that looks even worse when you consider the Bulldogs don’t play at a particularly aggressive pace. Each of their last eight opponents has scored at least 72 points, with five eclipsing the 80-point mark in that span.
That includes the Friars, who scored 81 when they traveled to Indianapolis on Feb. 8. While Butler escaped from that encounter with a one-point win, it allowed Providence to shoot 50% from the field and 50% from 3-point range — the kind of offensive efficiency the Bulldogs can’t allow today if they want to move on in the Big East Tournament.
It’s hard to find many positive things to say about Providence at this point in the season, but its performance in matchups with Butler and the fact that the Bulldogs have lost their last four games by an average of 10.5 points have me down on Butler even if I’m not high on the Friars.
In what should be a close game, I’m taking Providence to win outright at plus money.
Butler vs Providence same-game parlay (SGP)
Providence moneyline
Over 147.5
Bensley Joseph Over 15.5 points
Both teams are better on offense than they are at preventing points, and both games they’ve played against each other have resulted in totals of at least 149 points. I don’t expect anything to dramatically change in the third meeting, making the Over the clear play.
I’ll also take Providence guard Bensley Joseph to hit the Over on his scoring prop. Joseph is only averaging 12.9 PPG, but is coming off a great 27-point performance at Xavier on Saturday. He has gotten to at least 16 points in four of his last eight games, and scored 26 the last time the Friars played Butler — a sign he can easily get Over today’s number again in a rematch.
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Butler vs Providence odds
Butler vs Providence live odds
Butler vs Providence opening odds
- Spread: Butler -1.5 (-110) | Providence +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Butler -125 | Providence +105
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Butler vs Providence betting trend to know
Providence is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against Butler. Find more college basketball betting trends for Butler vs. Providence.
How to watch Butler vs Providence
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Butler vs Providence key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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