Colorado vs Oregon Odds, Picks and Predictions: Buffs Get Stuck in Muck vs Ducks

A four-game winning streak has the Colorado Buffaloes pushing for the No. 3 seed in the Pac-12. Also aiming for the third spot are the Oregon Ducks, who are slight home favorites hosting the Buffaloes on the college basketball odds board. 

The winner of Thursday’s contest will claim the No. 3 seed and an opening-round bye in the upcoming conference tournament.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this Pac-12 tilt and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Colorado vs. Oregon on Thursday, March 7.

Colorado vs Oregon best odds

Colorado vs Oregon picks and predictions

That status of both Cody Williams and Julian Hammond of the Colorado Buffaloes is officially “game-time decision,” with both players sitting out Sunday’s home win over Stanford. 

The Buffaloes opened as 1-point road underdogs at the Oregon Ducks tonight, but the market move to Ducks -2.5 could be a tell that Colorado will be missing these two key players for this vital late-season contest.

Williams, who is the team’s third leading scorer (13.7 ppg), is dealing with an ankle injury and has missed the past two outings. Hammond has sat out three in a row with a knee issue, taking away the Buffaloes’ top reserve guard.

Colorado has built up plenty of momentum during its current four-game run but can thank a home-heavy schedule for the boost. The Buffaloes have played three of those games in Boulder with the lone road game needing overtime to edge Southern Cal.

Colorado is one of the better home courts in the Pac-12, but its play away from the mountain top is concerning. 

The Buffaloes give up an average of 77.3 points per game as a visitor and see their scoring output dip more than 10 points in foreign gyms. The Buffs are just 2-7 SU and ATS in true road games, with an average margin of -6.3 over those nine away tilts.

Oregon knows all about the woes of injuries, with several key rotation players out of action for the past month. That’s led to some inconsistent efforts from Dana Altman’s team and only one ATS win in the last eight outings. 

That said, Oregon is back home in Eugene for just the second time in the past 19 days and has enjoyed an extended break, having last played at Arizona on Saturday. That’s given this short lineup time to rest and prepare for a crucial contest with Colorado tonight.

I don’t trust the Ducks against the spread, but you can get a good price on Oregon’s moneyline with some books hanging its outright odds as low as -148 compared to market highs of -160.

My best bet: Oregon moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)

Colorado vs Oregon same-game parlay

Oregon moneyline

K.J. Simpson Over 19.5 points

K.J. Simpson Over 2.5 made 3s

+360 at DraftKings

The Ducks defend home court against a shorthanded Colorado program that can’t play on the road.

With the Buffaloes potentially running thin again, Simpson steps up and takes advantage of the extra touches. His player projections call for as many as 22 points.

Simpson has been very active from outside, attempting eight more 3-pointers in three of the last four games while knocking down five, five, and six of those long-range looks.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colorado vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis

Oregon opened as a 1-point home favorite, but with Colorado potentially down two key players in Williams and Hammond, that spread has since climbed as high as -3 as of Thursday morning. 

According to Covers Consensus, 72% of early picks are laying the short spread with the Ducks in Eugene tonight.

Matthew Knight Arena is a sight for sore eyes, with Oregon having played at home only once in the past five games. The Ducks are 3-2 SU but just 1-4 ATS in that span, including beating Oregon State 78-71 at home but falling short of the 13.5-point spread.

Overall, Oregon is 12-2 SU at home but just 7-7 ATS in those contests. The Ducks see a slight uptick in offense when playing at home, but it’s been their home-court defense that has made the difference. They give up only 68 points against on a 49.2% effective field goal rate allowed in Nike Town.

The Buffaloes are battling despite those injuries and overcame the absence of Williams and Hammond in Sunday’s home win over Stanford. Three of the Buffs' four straight wins have been at home, where Colorado is 16-1 SU (10-7 ATS).

Put the Buffaloes on the road, however, and they've struggled to come through for bettors. Colorado is just 2-7 SU and ATS as a visitor this season, watching its offensive output drop by more than 10 points when compared to its home scoring clip.

These Pac-12 foes faced off in Boulder back in January, with the Buffaloes blowing away the Ducks for an 86-70 victory as 6-point home favorites. Williams led the team with 23 points on 10-for-13 shooting.

Tonight’s Over/Under total opened at 150.5 points and has bounced between that number and 149.5 since last night. Covers Consensus shows 59% of early picks taking the Over.

Oregon is 17-12 Over/Under on the season, including an 8-6 O/U count at home. The Ducks snapped a four-game Under run by playing Over the closing total in each of their last two games heading into Thursday.

Colorado is 18-11 O/U overall with a 6-3 O/U record in true road games. The Buffaloes are 3-1 O/U on their four-game winning streak and also played Over the total of 147.5 points in their win over Oregon on January 18.

Colorado vs Oregon betting trend to know

Oregon has won outright on the moneyline in 23 of its last 33 games (+12.00 Units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. Oregon.

Colorado vs Oregon game info

Colorado vs Oregon key injuries

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