The more of this season we see, the more clearly we understand why Tony Bennett suddenly retired from the Virginia Cavaliers shortly before the season began. The Cavaliers are not merely bad. They are bad in a way that would have driven Bennett particularly crazy.
The Duke Blue Devils will have no problems exploiting a lousy defense tonight.
My Duke vs. Virginia predictions and college basketball picks trust Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils to spur a high-scoring tilt. The tip comes at 8 ET on Monday, February 17.
Duke vs Virginia prediction
My best bet
Duke team total Over 72.5 (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
Virginia has not had a defense this bad in a full two decades. Looking at Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency measurements, limited to ACC play, the Cavaliers’ defense has not measured this badly since the 2004-05 season, the final season under Pete Gillen, and a full four years before Tony Bennett arrived in Charlottesville.
More pertinently, Virginia ranked No. 2 in the ACC in defensive efficiency last season and No. 1 in 2022-23. Nowadays, the Cavaliers rank No. 14 in the ACC.
How did this happen?
The short answer is that Virginia returned only two quality rotation pieces from Bennett’s last team. That may be something of a norm in college basketball thanks to immediate eligibility upon transferring, but for Bennett’s system, such roster turnover is crippling.
Since New Year’s, the Cavaliers have ranked No. 189 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik’s numbers. There is a reason seven of Virginia’s last eight games have gone Over their totals, with the exception being a push. And that reason is not the Cavaliers’ offense. It is their lack of a defense.
Duke will make the most of that. The No. 1 offense in the ACC — with the No. 1 effective field-goal percentage and the best shooting from beyond the arc, on the second-highest rate from beyond the arc — is an offense designed to exploit weaknesses. And Virginia has a bounty of weaknesses on defense.
In the last two months, the Blue Devils have cleared this team total in 12 of 14 games, the two exceptions coming against Wake Forest and Clemson, two defenses in the top four of the ACC, leaps and bounds ahead of Virginia’s.
Cooper Flagg pick: Capture the rebounds
My best bet
Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 rebounds (-155 at bet365)
My analysis
Remember what made Tony Bennett's teams strong? Their ability to limit penetration and their ability to snuff out second chances. Those were the biggest pieces of the “Pack Line” defense.
The Cavaliers have fallen off on the glass on both ends of the court. They grab only 22.7% of available offensive rebounds in conference play, per kenpom.com, last in the ACC. That number stood at 24.8% last year and 25.7% two years ago. Virginia is corralling just 71.2% of defensive rebounds, a respectable number ranking No. 6 in ACC play, but it is still a drop from last year’s 74.3% and two years ago at 75.3%.
These failures are clear and decisive.
Cooper Flagg is not renowned for his rebounding, but he ranks No. 15 in defensive rebounding rate in the ACC, and his 6-foot-9 frame should find plenty of opportunities on the glass tonight against this lackluster Cavaliers’ approach.
Duke vs Virginia same-game parlay (SGP)
Duke team total Over 72.5
Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 rebounds
Cooper Flagg Over 1.5 made threes
Flagg has found another level lately with his shooting stroke as well as his shooting aggression. That thought should terrify any March opponents.
In the first 10 ACC games of his career, Flagg went 16-of-38 from beyond the arc. In five games in February, he has shot 12-of-22 from long distance. That uptick to 54.5% from 42.1% may not be sustainable, but taking 4.4 threes per game rather than 3.8 should be a constant part of his game for the rest of the season.
And if Flagg is taking that many 3s, expect him to make at least two of them.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Duke vs Virginia odds
Duke vs Virginia live odds
Duke vs Virginia opening odds
- Spread: Duke -14.5 | Virginia +14.5
- Moneyline: Duke -1,100 | Virginia +700
- Over/Under: Over 129.5 | Under 129.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Duke vs Virginia betting trend to know
Virginia has not been a double-digit home underdog since 2011. Just a day more than exactly 14 years ago, Duke won in Charlottesville, 56-41. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Virginia.
How to watch Duke vs Virginia
| Location | John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date | Monday, 2-17-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Duke vs Virginia key injuries
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