It’s a battle between the American Athletic Conference’s Florida Atlantic Owls and the Atlantic 10’s Dayton Flyers in Round 1 of the NIT.
The Owls are slight 1-point favorites in the college basketball odds, with tip-off set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena in Boca Raton, FL.
Our Florida Atlantic vs. Dayton predictions and college basketball picks have the Flyers’ shooting exploiting a porous Owls defense on Wednesday, March 19.
Who will win Florida Atlantic vs Dayton?
These teams are evenly matched, as Dayton ranks 74th in KenPom’s overall ranking, and 93rd in strength of schedule.
The Owls aren’t that far behind, sitting 115th overall, and a strength of schedule that sits 105th at KenPom.
The difference here is the porous defense. Dayton was the top shooting 3-point team in the Atlantic 10 this year, hitting at a 35.5% clip. The Owls, meanwhile, are among the worst at defending the arc, ranking 341st in the nation, allowing teams to hit at 36.7% rate.
In a battle so close, that’s enough to tilt the scales to the Flyers.
Florida Atlantic vs Dayton prediction
My best bet: Over 151 (-110 at bet365)
The Dayton Flyers were rolling into the A10 Conference Tournament before getting upended by the St. Joseph’s Hawks in the quarterfinal, turning it into a one-and-done tourney.
Dayton is a Top-4 scoring team in their conference, putting up 75.2 points per game. Prior to that loss, they hadn’t been held under 70 points in their previous seven outings.
It’s been a rougher go down the stretch for the Florida Atlantic Owls, who had just three wins in their final seven regular season games before getting bounced by Tulane 83-76 in their AAC Tournament opener.
The Owls are also a Top-4 scoring team in their conference, putting up 78.7 points per contest, but they failed to cross 70 points in five of their last eight games. With a defense that allows the fourth-most points in the conference (75.2), it’s a lot to overcome.
Dayton isn’t exactly a powerhouse defensively either, ranking eighth in points allowed at 70.1, so offense should flow a little easier for the Owls.
The total is my play here. Dayton has cashed the Over in seven of its last 10, and with FAU’s porous 3-point defense, they should be able to put up a high number. The Flyers’ middle-of-the-pack defense should allow the Owls to crack their season scoring average as well.
Florida Atlantic vs Dayton same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 151
Dayton Over 75.5 points
Working on the assumption that Dayton does take this one, they usually put up a good scoring number in those games. Over their last 11 wins, the Flyers have hit the 76-point plateau seven times, missing it by a bucket in two others.
They should be right around that number again to cash this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida Atlantic vs Dayton odds
Florida Atlantic vs Dayton live odds
Florida Atlantic vs Dayton opening odds
- Spread: Florida Atlantic -1 | Dayton +1
- Moneyline: Florida Atlantic -113 | Dayton -103
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Florida Atlantic vs Dayton betting trend to know
The Owls are just 2-8-0 against the spread in their last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida Atlantic vs. Dayton.
How to watch Florida Atlantic vs Dayton
| Location | Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena, Boca Raton, FL |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Florida Atlantic vs Dayton key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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