Florida vs Alabama Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Watch Walter Cook

The No. 6 seeded Florida Gators face the No. 3 seed Alabama Crimson Tide in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament bracket on Friday night. Both of these schools have national title aspirations with the Crimson Tide 10th on the March Madness odds board at +3,000 while the Gators are 18th at +5,000.

The college basketball odds are expecting a shootout between these high-scoring squads with the Over/Under sitting at a whopping 174 and the Tide installed as 4-point favorites. See how I'm attacking these conference tournament odds with my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Florida vs. Alabama on March 15.

Florida vs Alabama best odds

Florida vs Alabama picks and predictions

These teams collided twice within the last month with the Florida Gators winning 105-87 in Gainesville and the Alabama Crimson Tide squeezing out a 98-93 overtime victory in Tuscaloosa. With two highly efficient offenses that love to push the pace and defenses that struggle to get stops, this total is sitting at a towering 173.5.

Given the numbers both teams are putting up, it seems like oddsmakers have adjusted the total appropriately but the same might not be true for individual player props.

Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. is averaging 18.5 points per game on 42/37/92 shooting splits in conference play and the O/U on his points is sitting at 18.5 despite facing a fast-paced Alabama squad that ranks just 105th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Clayton has scored at least 19 points in eight of his last 10 games and dropped 22 points against Georgia last night. 

Clayton thrives at midrange and the perimeter and the Tide don't do a good job of defending either area. They allow a high frequency and rank 313th in defensive efficiency against midrange shots according to ShotQualityBets. While they have an impressive opponent three-point percentage (31.8%) they allow plenty of high-quality attempts from beyond the arc which has resulted in that number soaring to 36.6% away from home. 

In the first meeting against Alabama, Clayton dropped 27 points on a whopping 24 field goal attempts. In the previous meeting last week he finished with 22 points despite going just 3-12 from the field and 2-7 from deep. If Clayton can eclipse this total while having an off night in terms of efficiency, he'll likely easily clear it when positive regression sets in.

My best bet: Walter Clayton Jr. Over 18.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Florida vs Alabama same-game parlay

Walter Clayton Jr. Over 18.5 points

Florida +4.5

Grant Nelson Over 10.5 points

+440 at DraftKings

The Tide are seen as a national title contender but until they fix that defense they won't go far in March. This is an Alabama squad that ranks just 247th in the country with 105.2 points allowed per 100 possessions and that number has ballooned to 114.9 away from home. 

On offense, the Tide are heavily reliant on the deep ball, ranking 16th in the country in three-point rate (47.2%). That can make their offense extremely volatile, especially against Florida who has done a good job guarding outside shooters. The Gators have the lowest opponent three-point percentage (30.7%) in SEC play and held the Tide to 28.8% shooting from deep across both games head-to-head. 

The Tide recently lost by double digits to Florida on the road and were fortunate to escape with an overtime victory at home. I'll gladly take the surging Gators with the points here. 

While the Gators have been defending well on the perimeter they haven't been great at the rim. They are eighth in the conference in opponent two-point percentage (52.1%) and they struggled to contain Alabama forward Grant Nelson. Nelson averages 12.0 ppg and he dropped 22 points in the first meeting before scoring 12 against Florida last week.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with Alabama at -4.5 or -4 and hasn't seen any movement. The total opened at 170.5 and money immediately poured in on the Over, moving the O/U to as high as 174 by noon ET. 

The Tide wrapped up their regular season by edging Arkansas in overtime despite entering that contest as 15.5-point home favorites. They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Alabama ranks third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom but they are just 105th on defense. 

The Gators beat Georgia 85-80 last night but failed to cover the spread as 8-point chalk. Like the Tide, they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Also like the Tide, the Gators have been efficient on offense (18th in adjusted offensive efficiency) but shaky on defense where they rank 88th.

Florida vs Alabama betting trend to know

The Over is 9-1 in Alabama's last 10 games while going 7-1 in Florida's previous eight contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Alabama.

Florida vs Alabama game info

Florida vs Alabama key injuries

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