Georgetown vs Villanova Odds, Picks and Predictions: Georgetown Won't Go Down Easy

One rivalry between two Big East sides that has stood the test of time is the Villanova Wildcats against the Georgetown Hoyas. They'll meet again when the Hoyas travel to Philadelphia for some matinee Monday basketball.

Both of these sides are reeling, with Nova arriving at this game with a two-game losing streak. For Georgetown? Well, this season has been more of a repeat of the sad reality of Hoyas basketball over the past few seasons. Much maligned Head Coach Patrick Ewing has struggled throughout his tenure, and they'll head into this matchup with a dreadful eight-game losing streak.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Villanova vs. Georgetown. 

Georgetown vs Villanova best odds

Georgetown vs Villanova picks and predictions

There aren't many people racing to back the Hoyas, and I understand why. Georgetown is bad, failing to cover in five straight games. Never mind the losing streak: it's yet to win a game in the conference and has been largely noncompetitive in most games. With that said, this is just a shade heavy on the points. 

Handicapping the mental fortitude of college basketball players isn't something I'll do too much, but you have to think if there's a game Georgetown will be "up" for, it will be this one. This is one of the more historic rivalries in college basketball. The Hoyas know if they can get a win here, then their season can have a slightly different feel. 

These two last met right around two weeks ago, with the Wildcats winning by 16. However, there was one significant discrepancy, and it came behind the arc. Georgetown went 4 of 20 from three, and Villanova went 9 of 27.

That's a 15-point advantage via the 3-pointer and effectively what decided the game. I'm not expecting that advantage to be as significant as that this time around for numerous reasons.

One of the most striking is that eight threes were unguarded, and the Hoyas made just two of them. That doesn't seem very sustainable, especially when we know the Wildcats are a team that's struggled defensively all season. Against spot-up shooters, they're allowing .90 points per possession and an eFG% of 49.2% — both slightly below the national average.

Relying on the 3-ball isn't the only reason I expect Georgetown to cover here. After losing two straight games, there is a general malaise around the Villanova program. While that's the case for the Hoyas, it also levels the playing field for this matchup because the Wildcats were in a much different place just two weeks ago.

There's also the aspect of Villanova's inability to attack one of Georgetown's most significant weak points. The Hoyas — an already bad defensive team — have compounded matters this season by giving teams second-chance points.

It wasn't a problem in the first meeting, and it shouldn't be one here. Georgetown ranks in the mid-200s in defensive rebounding percentage, but Nova ranks nearly 300th in offensive rebounding. That effectively nullifies any potential advantage on the glass.

My projections have the Cats by 9 points. While this will likely be a sweat, siding with the Hoyas and the points is the best bet for this matchup. 

My best bet: Georgetown +14.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Georgetown vs Villanova spread analysis

We're rolling with Georgetown. I'd be shocked if the Hoyas managed an outright win, but this is too many points. Villanova has more talented players, but there isn't a massive edge in coaching, and neither of these teams does an excellent job of attacking the other's weaknesses.

A textbook example is the rebounding I noted above, but you can also look at other metrics — such as free throws defense and free throw rate — that grade out reasonably even. If Georgetown can get Brandon Murray or Jay Heath going — the team's two best spot-up shooters — then I expect it to hang around enough to cover. If it can't, it has a few other routes as well. 

Georgetown vs Villanova Over/Under analysis

I don't have much of an edge on either side of the total, but if I had to lean one way, it would be the Over.  Neither of these defenses is very good, both allowing over a point per possession and ranking well below the national average in defensive efficiency.

We should see around 70 possessions, and if that happens, you will be in a good position to cash the Over. I likely won't bet it at the current number of 142.5, I'd need closer to 140.5.

The Over has been a profitable bet when Georgetown is playing, especially on the road. The Hoyas have seen five straight road games go Over, and for Villanova, the Over is 19-6 in its last 24 games after an ATS loss like the one it's coming off of. 

Georgetown vs Villanova betting trend to know

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams. Find more College basketball betting trends for Georgetown vs. Georgetown.

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