When the calendar flips to March, the intensity in the Big Ten gets turned up to 11.
It will be an electric atmosphere inside the Breslin Center this afternoon, where the Michigan State Spartans host the Wisconsin Badgers.
The Spartans are rolling on a four-game winning streak and are closing in on the top seed in the conference. However, the Badgers are just as hot with the only loss in the last seven games coming in overtime.
I expect another tight contest atop the Big Ten, leading my Wisconsin vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks to the road underdog on Sunday, March 2.
Wisconsin vs Michigan State prediction
My best bet
Wisconsin +4.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Michigan State Spartans did a great job against a talented Maryland squad last Wednesday and escaped the XFINITY Center with a halfcourt heave that beat the buzzer to avoid overtime.
It was another road win for Tom Izzo’s crew, which has excelled in the role of visitor this season (6-2-1 ATS). The only other team in the Big Ten touting that same ATS success away from home is the Wisconsin Badgers.
The Badgers are 7-2 against the spread as visitors and find themselves catching 4.5 points inside the Breslin Center this afternoon.
This is a matchup between the Big Ten’s top-rated offense and its top-rated defense, but it’s the way Wisconsin goes about its business with the basketball that can also help it defend against MSU.
The Badgers are among the most capable offenses in the country and top the Big Ten in field goal rate and offensive efficiency. Wisconsin actually shoots at a higher rate in opposing gyms (56.2% eFG), which means Michigan State will start a good portion of its possessions off the inbounds pass, following a UW bucket.
That right there puts the brakes on the Spartans’ always dangerous transition attack. Michigan State thrives on picking up points off defensive stops, either pushing tempo off a defensive rebound or flipping turnovers into fastbreak chances at the rim.
Not only does Wisconsin hit its shots at a high rate, but it’s also very careful with the basketball. The Badgers are 29th in turnovers given up, which also has them allowing the second-fewest points off those turnovers in the conference.
With that, Wisconsin is able to get back and set up its halfcourt defense. The Badgers have a big team that plugs up the paint and forces foes to the outside.
They allow less than 28 points in the paint per game (fourth-lowest in Big Ten) and also do a good job protecting the glass on defense. Wisky boasts a rebound rate of 52.5% while limiting foes to eight offensive rebounds an outing and 9.6 second-chance points per contests. That’s an area MSU depends on, with the Green and White ranked 48th in offensive boards and No. 2 in second-chance points in the Big Ten.
Game projections call for a tight matchup and come in lower on Michigan State’s scoring output, compared to its team total. Those models range from 1-point Spartans win to some forecasts giving Wisconsin the nod as the road team.
My number calls for 2-point victory for the Spartans, which has me taking the points with the Badgers on Sunday afternoon.
Wisconsin vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)
Wisconsin +4.5
Under 147.5
Jase Richardson Under 14.5 points
The Badgers' efficient attack and transition defense will cool off a red-hot MSU squad.
Most game models are coming in Under the total, with both teams playing with postseason intensity.
Richardson has been on a tear during MSU’s winning streak, but player forecasts call for less than 15 points this afternoon.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Wisconsin vs Michigan State odds
Wisconsin vs Michigan State live odds
Wisconsin vs Michigan State opening odds
- Spread: Wisconsin +4 | Michigan State -4
- Moneyline: Wisconsin +166 | Michigan State -196
- Over/Under: Over 147 | Under 147
Odds courtesy of bet365
Wisconsin vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Wisconsin has covered the spread in 23 of their its 36 games (+8.75 Units / 22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Wisconsin vs Michigan State
| Location | Jack Breslin Student Events Center, East Lansing, MI |
| Date | Sunday, 3-2-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV |
CBS |
Wisconsin vs Michigan State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
