The No. 14 Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Michigan Wolverines in college basketball action on Thursday night. The Wolverines have struggled this season but are coming off a win, and they'll get to play an Illini squad that has suspended its best player indefinitely.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close game between these Big Ten foes, with college basketball odds installing the Illini as 2.5-point road favorites with the Over/Under at 153.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Illinois vs. Michigan on Thursday, January 18.
Illinois vs Michigan best odds
Illinois vs Michigan picks and predictions
Since suspending All-American candidate Terrence Shannon Jr. following sexual assault charges, Illinois has gone 3-2 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread. Surprisingly, they've continued to put up points without Shannon, torching Fairleigh Dickinson for 104 points and scoring 96 points versus Northwestern while dropping 78 against No. 2 Purdue.
Granted they are coming off a poor offensive performance against Maryland, but the Terps are 22nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while Michigan ranks just 131st.
The Wolverines exit a home win against rival Ohio State but could be due for a letdown here. Keep in mind that Michigan shot a sizzling 52% from long range in that contest while the Buckeyes went just 3-for-25 from deep, so expect regression to the mean in both areas.
Prior to that victory, the Wolverines had gone just 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in their previous 10 games, which included a double-digit loss at home to McNeese State.
The Crisler Center is not an easy road venue to play in but the Illini have gone 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three trips here while beating the Wolverines in the last six overall meetings.
Although the Illini miss Shannon, they've given more minutes to Luke Goode and Quincy Guerrier, who've both played well. While their depth has suffered and their starters could be worn down by conference time, they should be fresh enough to give a good effort here.
The Wolverines have been shooting well from the perimeter but they don't make things easy for themselves since they attack the rim at an extremely low frequency while also being extremely inefficient in transition. The Illini allow few shots at the rim (321st in opponent attacking the rim frequency) and are also excellent at defending in transition.
They'll force Michigan into midrange and deep shots while taking more high-percentage shots themselves. Back Illinois to win and cover tonight.
My best bet: Illinois -2.5 (-120 at PROLINE+)
Illinois vs Michigan same-game parlay
Illinois -2.5
Over 153.5
If the Illini want to cover, their offense will have to be clicking on all cylinders. Fortunately, they shouldn't have a tough time scoring against a Wolverines side that hasn't been defending well outside of their last two games.
While they faced slow-paced and low-scoring Ohio State and Maryland squads in those contests, now they take on a fast-paced Illinois team that can fill up the hoop. Expect the Wolverines to regress to where they were in December when they surrendered 83.8 ppg during a six-game stretch, with the Over cashing in each of those contests.
That said, Michigan can get buckets as well. Point guard Dug McDaniel and forward Olivier Nkamhoua are both averaging over 17.0 ppg while wing Terrance Williams II is a strong third-scoring option with 12.9 ppg. Expect a high-scoring affair between these squads and parlay the Over with my spread play.
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Illinois vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with Illinois at -2.5 and the total at 153.5 and both the spread and total have remained unchanged as of 1 p.m. ET.
Michigan beat Ohio State 73-65 on Monday to snap a five-game losing streak where they went 0-5 ATS.
The Illini are No. 12 in the KenPom ratings while ranking 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but there's simply no way to lose a player like Shannon without a decline on that end of the floor.
Shannon was leading the team with 21.7 ppg on 51/41/77 shooting splits, and while he is seeking a court injunction to allow him to return to the team, that won't be happening anytime soon.
Illinois vs Michigan betting trend to know
Illinois is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these Big Ten foes. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Michigan.
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Illinois vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Thursday, January 18, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Illinois vs Michigan key injuries
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