Indiana vs Illinois Odds, Picks and Predictions: Shannon Return Helps Fuel Illini Offense

Coming off back-to-back losses against Top-25 teams in the Big Ten, the gauntlet continues for Indiana as Mike Woodson’s program hits the road to take on No. 11 Illinois at the State Farm Center.

While this Illini program is one of the best in the country, it’s coming off a loss of its own to Northwestern, who has now managed to take down both Illinois and Purdue. Despite the loss, with Terrence Shannon Jr. back in the lineup, the college basketball odds have Brad Underwood’s team as a 14-point favorite in what’s shaping up to be a high-scoring affair.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Illinois on Saturday, January 27.

Indiana vs Illinois best odds

Indiana vs Illinois picks and predictions

Even with the loss to the Wildcats earlier this week, Illinois has one of the best offenses in the country and should push this Indiana team around all over the court, but the Northwestern loss made it clear, this defense has issues. That sets up well for the Over 154.5 to be in play.

With Terrence Shannon Jr. back in the lineup after being charged with sexual assault and missing six games, Underwood’s program is one of the best in basketball. It’s scoring 82.7 points per game this season, 24th-most in the country, and ranks seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency.

It hasn’t just been beating up mid-majors either, the Illini have played the 28th-toughest schedule based on opposing defenses and even in conference losses, like the one to Northwestern, it’s been hanging points.

Obviously, Shannon Jr. is the biggest game-changer for this team. He’s one of the best players in a Big Ten full of stars and is the catalyst for this offense. This season, Illinois has been one of the better all-around shooting teams in the conference, but does its best work inside the arc.

That’s what makes Shannon so important to this offense, he’s the most consistent 3-pointer shooter in the lineup and the only starter taking more than five threes per game. As a team, Illinois shoots 45.6% from the field, 54.4% from two, and 34.3% from deep. 

Shannon though, is shooting 37% from three and hit 2.3 of 6.2 attempts per game, and scoring 20.5 points per game. He’s been dominant inside the arc too, shooting 63.3%, and the combo guard has scored double-digit points in every game he’s played this season. 

Since his return to the lineup, Illinois’ offense has dropped 86 in a win over Rutgers and 91 in the loss to Northwestern, two comparable programs to Indiana, and it hasn’t had to rely heavily on Shannon either. It goes to show how well-rounded this scoring attack is that in its six games without Shannon, the Illini still managed to score 84 points per game.

With mid-range ace Marcus Domask, 15.1 points per game, big man Coleman Hawkins, 12 points per game, and Oregon transfer Quincy Guerrier, 11.8 points per game, Illinois has a four-headed offensive attack capable of winning the Big Ten. Domask, a Southern Illinois transfer, has been on a tear since the start of January averaging 21.1 points per game this month.

Indiana’s going to have a hard time slowing both Shannon and Domask down while trying to deal with Hawkins, a future NBA pick. He’s a big X-factor for this offense with his ability to stretch the court. The 6-foot-10 big is shooting 36.4% from three.

The biggest issue for Indiana’s defense, which ranks 86th in adjusted defensive efficiency, will be matching up with the athleticism and scoring versatility of Illinois. The Hoosiers are allowing 74.3 points per game, 250th in the country, and teams are hitting 8.6 threes per game against Woodson’s team.

Between Shannon and Hawkins, they should be able to make it rain from deep while Domask and Guerrier keep it honest by attacking the rim and pulling from mid-range, Indiana is allowing opponents to shoot 47.9% from two.

While Indiana strung together a handful of Big Ten games where it allowed fewer than 70 points, the best in the conference have lit them up. In their last two games the Hoosiers allowed 87 points to No. 2 Purdue and 91 points to No. 11 Wisconsin.

Luckily for Indiana, and Over bettors, the Hoosiers are capable of scoring. It’s not the most threatening offense, but it’s scoring 74.2 points per game and has two talented big men in Malik Reneau and Kel’el Ware.

Behind those two, the Hoosiers are shooting 47.9% from the field, 39th best in the country, 53.1% from two, and hitting 34.1% of its threes. Reneau has been a force at times scoring 16.5 points per game and looking good when he does pull from deep, he’s shooting 40.6% from three.

Likewise, Ware is a mismatch at 7 feet with a willingness to shoot a three every so often to keep defenders on their toes. He’s averaging 14.2 points and hitting 41.7% of his threes. The way to attack this Illinois defense is from deep.

It’s ranked 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency and slowing teams from inside the arc, but allowing 32.2% from three, which may not jump out, but is just 127th in the country. Reneau and Ware’s size and shooting can give Illinois enough trouble to help hit the Over.

My best bet: Over 154.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Indiana vs Illinois same-game parlay

Over 154.5

Illinois -14.5

Indiana Over 65.5 points

+320 at bet365

Illinois has scored at least 71 points in seven of eight Big Ten games and is averaging 81.6 points per game in-conference. It’s been bullying the mid-tier programs in the conference and is 5-1-2 in Big Ten games ATS this season.

Even in blowout losses, which Indiana has had a few of in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers aren’t completely inept on offense. Reneau and Ware are trustworthy enough scorers to help this team get to 66 points. The Hoosiers are scoring 70 points per game in Big Ten games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Indiana vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis

With Shannon Jr. back in the lineup and Illinois’ offensive ability, most books opened with the Illini between 12.5 and 14.5-point favorites and most have settled in at 14.5. Illinois is 10-6-3 ATS this season while Indiana is 8-10-1.

The game total hasn’t moved much after opening between 153.5 and 154 at most books. Everyone is expecting Illinois to score big, which makes sense, the program is 12-7 betting the Over this season and 10-2 in its last 12. Indiana is a solid 10-9 betting the Over and 5-3 in its last eight.

Indiana vs Illinois betting trend to know

Illinois has hit the Over in 18 of its last 32 games (+2.60 Units / 7% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Illinois.

Indiana vs Illinois game info

Indiana vs Illinois key injuries

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