It's a busy Tuesday of college basketball betting headlined by a matchup between a pair of Top 15 schools as the Kansas State Wildcats face the Iowa State Cyclones.
The Wildcats are atop the Big-12 conference standings and are the No. 5 ranked team in the latest AP Top 25 poll while Iowa State is at No. 12.
However, the Cyclones are a perfect 10-0 at home and college basketball odds expect them to cruise to another victory in Ames, installing them as 5.5-point faves. Here are my best Kansas State vs. Iowa State college basketball picks and predictions for January 24.
Kansas State vs Iowa State best odds
Kansas State vs Iowa State picks and predictions
It's understandable that the Cyclones are 5.5-point faves given their dominance at home this season, including recent double-digit victories against Texas and Baylor, and a 34-point beatdown of Texas Tech.
KenPom is also less bullish on the Wildcats than the AP and Coaches polls, with KSU ranking 26th in adjusted efficiency margin compared to 12th for ISU.
That said, it's tough to turn down this many points with a team that has been as good as the Wildcats who boast a 5-1 record against Quadrant 1 foes. Kansas State has lost just once since the start of December and has victories against Top 10 opponents Kansas and Texas (on the road) during that span.
The Cyclones have looked terrific on defense but lack consistency on offense. being held below 70 points in four of their last six games. They'll likely also be without starting guard Caleb Grill (third on the team with 10.3 ppg) and have been missing starting forward Aljaz Kunc for the last month.
Add in Iowa State's struggles at the charity stripe (304th in the country at a 66.9% conversion rate), and I'll take the visitors with the points.
My best bet: Kansas State +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
Looking to do some college basketball betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Kansas State vs Iowa State spread analysis
The Wildcats have gone 11-1 straight up in their last 12 games while covering the spread in nine of their previous 11 contests. In their last outing, they rallied from a half-time deficit to beat Texas Tech 68-58.
They're led by two of the best players in the conference in forward Keyontae Johnson (18.5 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 54.8 FG%), and point guard Markquis Nowell who is second in the country in both assists (8.2) and steals (2.3) per game while averaging 16.7 ppg.
Kansas State's only defeat in conference play came on the road against No. 11 TCU, losing by 14 points in a contest it coughed the ball up 19 times while shooting just 6-for-21 from deep.
KSU could struggle in both areas again vs. an Iowa State squad that leads the country in opponent turnover rate (27.7%) and limits foes to a 30.4 three-point percentage.
The Cyclones have lost two of their last three games, falling in close contests to Oklahoma State and Kansas. However, both of those defeats came on the road and they still looked very tough defensively in those contests.
They're seventh in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and have yet to allow more than 67 points in a Big 12 contest. They are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games and have a 14-4 record on the season despite playing the seventh-toughest schedule in the country according to ESPN.
ISU lacks a true go-to scorer with guards Jaren Holmes and Gabe Kalscheur leading the school with 12.9 ppg and 12.8 ppg respectively. Grill is the only other player averaging more than 9.0 ppg but it looks doubtful that he'll play tonight due to back tightness.
Kansas State vs Iowa State Over/Under analysis
The Wildcats play at an above-average pace but the Cyclones prefer to slow things down and rank 307th in the country in adjusted tempo. Iowa State is eighth in the country in points per game allowed (58.6 ppg) with that number ticking up to 61.3 ppg in conference play.
With a sluggish tempo, elite defense, and inconsistent offense, you'd probably expect plenty of lower-scoring contests for ISU.
That said, the Cyclones have been far better offensively at home. They average 75.9 ppg on 48% shooting at home, compared to just 63.9 ppg and a 43.1 FG% on the road.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats have seen plenty of higher-scoring games lately and are scoring 82.7 ppg in conference play while surrendering 79 ppg. Although those numbers are a bit inflated by three games that went into overtime, their games against Kansas and Baylor saw plenty of points even before the extra frame.
While the Under is 16-6 in the Cyclones' last 22 games overall, the Over has cashed in their previous four contests at home while also going 4-0 in Kansas State's last four away games.
Kansas State vs Iowa State betting trend to know
The Wildcats are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Kansas State vs. Iowa State.
Kansas State vs Iowa State game info
| Location: | James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 24, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
