Arch Madness concludes in St. Louis on Sunday afternoon when Bradley and Drake vie for an automatic NCAA Tournament berth in the Missouri Valley Championship.
The Braves turned the clock to midnight on the Cinderella run by Valparaiso on Saturday evening. The Bulldogs overcame a poor first-half performance to rally and knock out Belmont in the earlier game to set up a showdown between the top two teams in the conference.
My Bradley vs. Drake predictions and college basketball picks for Sunday, March 9 break down why the Bulldogs will be punching their ticket to the Big Dance.
Drake vs Bradley prediction
Who will win Drake vs Bradley?
The Bradley Braves and Drake Bulldogs beat one another on the road in their two regular season meetings, but Bradley’s win came by just two points with a dunk inside the final 10 seconds, and came on the back of a strong outside shooting performance.
The Braves aren’t shooting well in St. Louis, and narrowly defeated a Valparaiso team that finished second-worst in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Bulldogs will slow this game down and claim an automatic bid to the Big Dance.
My best bet
Drake -3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Bradley is the best 3-point shooting team in college basketball. The Braves have knocked down better than 40% of their long-range efforts on the season and have the right guys taking them. The four players with the most attempts on the season are all connecting at a rate of at least 38.8%. It’s an important part of the offense, as the 3-ball accounts for 41.7% of their scoring on the season.
However, something about Arch Madness has the Braves misfiring just a bit. Against Murray State, the Braves made just 3 of 13 from beyond the arc, and needed a 7-0 run with five minutes left to pull away.
Last night, Valparaiso gave them everything they could handle. And again, the Braves couldn’t get their usual output from deep. They hit just 5 of 16 attempts, and needed an 11-2 run in the second half to swing the game in their favor. Had the Beacons not lost their starting point guard to injury with two minutes remaining, the game easily could have gone the other way as Valpo failed to score a single point after he exited.
And if the Braves can’t find a way to score consistently from deep, it’ll be tough to get another win over Drake. After all, their victory at Drake earlier this season came with them making 7 of 17 attempts from 3-point range. The Braves also came out even on the glass, allowing only seven offensive boards.
Bradley’s win at Drake went the opposite way. The Braves hit only five 3-point shots in 20 attempts, were out-rebounded by three, and allowed 10 second-chance opportunities. And considering Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo, an offensive rebound means the Bulldogs can force you to defend for an extremely long time.
However, Bradley’s shooting woes during Arch Madness aren’t confined to the perimeter. The free throw shooting has also been poor, having made just 60.7% on 28 attempts against Valpo and 65.4% against Murray State. For a team shooting 75.8% from the line on the season, that’s very troublesome — especially in March.
Drake ranks Top 10 nationally in forcing turnovers on defense, Top 20 in offensive rebound rate, and Top 40 in defensive rebound rate. Valpo pulled down 11 offensive boards last night, and Murray State got 13 the night before.
It’s hard to see the Braves covering here without the long-range shots falling. The Bulldogs will slow this game down, force the Braves — who will be playing for the second time in less than 20 hours— to defend for long stretches, and pull away down the stretch.
I will advise not to take this line past -3.5, however. It has shifted from -1.5 in the early morning, and if it goes past -4, I recommend trying to get a lower number live.
Drake vs Bradley same-game parlay (SGP)
Drake -3.5
Over 119.5
Bradley first half team total Under 27.5
I like this game to go Over the 119.5-point total. The first two meetings saw 120 and 121 points, and the Bulldogs were sent to the line three times in the final minute in their win over the Braves while making all six attempts. With Bradley almost certainly needing a win to make the NCAA Tournament, I expect we’ll see even more fouling down the stretch to extend the same, which will put this Over the total.
On the flip side, I think Bradley will struggle to find offense in the first half. Fatigue will be an issue in this game, and the outside shooting concerns will make points harder to come by. The Braves had 31 points at halftime in each of the meetings this season, but had just 28 against Murray State and 31 against a very poor Valpo defense.
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Drake vs Bradley odds
Drake vs Bradley live odds
Drake vs Bradley opening odds
- Spread: Drake -2.5 | Bradley +2.5
- Moneyline: Drake -140 | Bradley +120
- Over/Under: Over 119.5 | Under 119.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Drake vs Bradley betting trend to know
Drake has cashed the first-half moneyline in 25 of its last 33 games for +15.65 units and a 14% ROI. Find more college basketball betting trends for Drake vs. Bradley.
How to watch Drake vs Bradley
| Location | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Sunday, 3-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Drake vs Bradley key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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