The No. 9 seed Pepperdine Waves (12-21) will try to continue their Cinderella run in the WCC Championships, facing the No. 4 seed Santa Clara Broncos (20-11) in the quarterfinals.
The Waves pulled off outright upsets over Portland and Oregon State to stay alive, whereas the Broncos have been idle to this point thanks to a triple bye.
Teams have been on a torrid run toward the Over to start this tournament and I’m betting on yet another Over with my Pepperdine vs. Santa Clara predictions and college basketball picks for Sunday, March 9.
Pepperdine vs Santa Clara prediction
Who will win Pepperdine vs Santa Clara?
Santa Clara (-1600) is heavily favored and will advance to the semifinals. The Broncos won the only regular season meeting by 11 points at home; this time around, they are 16-point favorites on a neutral site. Herb Sendek’s squad ranks 187 spots higher in KenPom and has a rest advantage — this is their first game since March 1, whereas Pepperdine is playing its third game in as many days.
My best bet
Over 154.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The WCC Championship has been a fun tournament if you like Overs or Cinderella stories. It has delivered both through three rounds — teams are a combined 5-0 O/U, and the Pepperdine Waves find themselves in the quarterfinals as a No. 9 seed after back-to-back outright upsets.
We’re focusing on the first storyline continuing for this game’s best bet. Pepperdine went Over the total against both Portland (156) and Oregon State (147.5) — so why not a third time?
Point guard Moe Odum has emerged as a star through the first two games. He single-handedly took over the Portland game (31 points, 11 assists) and stayed hot as an efficient floor general against Oregon State (17 points, 10 assists).
He combines with Stefan Todorovic (18.5 ppg) for one of the best one-two punches in the WCC. The Serbian forward exploded for 34 points against the Beavers, shooting 10-for-18 from the field and 5-for-9 from 3-point range.
Players can get hot in March, and Pepperdine has clicked so well offensively that it should contribute to the total in this matchup. The Waves are a talented team that struggled to click for much of the year, playing under a new head coach (Ed Schilling) and dealing with the destruction and fallout of the Franklin and Palisades fires. The narrative of a talented team clicking at the end of the year makes sense, and it coincides with a 5-1 O/U run in their last six games.
The Santa Clara Broncos are no joke, ranking 13th on BartTorvik since the start of February. They have a deadly offense averaging 81.5 ppg and consistently find good looks, relentlessly attacking the rim (17th in near-proximity attempt rate per Haslametrics) and scorching the nets from downtown (37.8% from 3-point range).
Herb Sendek’s squad should be able to exploit a Pepperdine defense that struggles to defend either type of look. The Waves are a layup line down low (256th in near-proximity attempt rate, 284th in near-proximity field goal defense) and allow a plentitude of open looks from behind the arc (282nd in 3-point attempt rate, 201st in 3-point field goal defense).
The Broncos racked up 91 points in the first matchup and forecast for more success against a Pepperdine defense ranked 319th in defensive efficiency since February 1 (BartTorvik).
Both teams love to play with pace, ranking Top 80 in adjusted tempo. Santa Clara should play fast in hopes of exploiting Pepperdine’s tired legs while the Waves will look to continue getting into high-scoring games to maximize their chances of a victory.
Pepperdine vs Santa Clara same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 154.5
Santa Clara -15.5
Before the tournament started, I had Santa Clara circled as a team I wanted to back. The Broncos are playing terrific basketball and have great metrics, yet have been somewhat of a “forgotten team” in the conference.
Four different players average double figures led by wing Adama Bal’s 13.1 ppg. They aren’t reliant on one player beating you, so they are at less risk of growing cold if one player’s shot isn’t falling.
Sendek’s squad went on a 7-1 ATS tear to finish the season, lambasting bad teams (20+ point wins over San Diego, Portland, and Pacific twice) and handling perceived competitors with ease (30-point win over Washington State, 15-point win over LMU).
Their fresh legs will be crucial in a game that projects to be played at a frenetic pace, and their advantage on the defense end is absurd (300 spots higher in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 1 per BartTorvik).
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Pepperdine vs Santa Clara odds
Pepperdine vs Santa Clara live odds
Pepperdine vs Santa Clara opening odds
- Spread: Pepperdine +16 | Santa Clara -16
- Moneyline: Pepperdine +875 | Santa Clara -1600
- Over/Under: Over 155 | Under 155
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pepperdine vs Santa Clara betting trend to know
Teams are 5-0 O/U through the first three rounds of the WCC Championship. Find more college basketball betting trends for Pepperdine vs. Santa Clara.
How to watch Pepperdine vs Santa Clara
| Location | Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Sunday, 3-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Pepperdine vs Santa Clara key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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