Pour yourself a cup of your preferred caffeinated beverage and stay up late to catch a quarterfinal WCC Championship matchup between the No. 6 seed Washington State Cougars (19-13) and the No. 3 seed San Francisco Dons (23-8) tonight.
Wazzu put forth a dazzling display in last night’s 94-77 throttling of LMU and will look to stay hot against a short-handed USF squad.
Check out why I’m backing the underdog with my Washington State vs. San Francisco predictions and college basketball picks for Sunday, March 9.
Washington State vs San Francisco prediction
Who will win Washington State vs San Francisco?
Give me Washington State (+180) to pull off the upset. San Francisco got some extremely unfortunate news this week when it was announced that star guard Marcus Williams will be withheld from competition due to a potential NCAA rule violation. Part of what made USF an appealing team in March is that it had two terrific lead guards to pair with a stout defense, but now half of that equation is missing. Wazzu dominated its third-round game against LMU and is ready to capitalize.
My best bet
Washington State +5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This line doesn’t quite make sense to me. These teams met twice in the regular season, with the Washington State Cougars winning as a two-point favorite in Pullman and the San Francisco Dons winning as a 3.5-point favorite at the Sobrato Center. That would imply that USF would be -1 on a neutral court, not -5, as is the case for this quarterfinal matchup.
Add in the fact that second-leading scorer (15.1 ppg) and leading assist man (4.3) Marcus Williams will seemingly miss the contest, and something is awry. Williams and Malik Thomas (19.1 ppg) are the only Dons averaging double-figures, so the entire game plan is now in doubt.
USF was a wagon at home (16-1) but was much more beatable on the road (5-5). The Dons rank 324th in Haslametrics’ away from home metric.
Wazzu made me a believer with its thoroughly dominant 17-point triumph over LMU on Saturday. I was hesitant about the Cougars due to their poor finish to the regular season (2-9 in their last 11 games), but perhaps that is worth a revisit.
After all, this program has a new head coach, a new conference, and is playing with almost an entirely new roster. Such is life after realignment. Some bumps in the road are to be expected along the way, especially when you’re one of two teams in the conference unfamiliar with the new venues and styles of play.
The Cougars have five players averaging double figures led by Nate Calmese’s 15.2 ppg, and two of whom stand 6-foot-10 (Ethan Price, Dane Erikstrup). Although they’re playing their second game in as many days, their willingness to share the wealth (26 assists in two consecutive games) bodes well for longevity.
The worry, of course, is a defense allowing 78.1 ppg and ranking 198th in adjusted efficiency (KenPom). It’s unclear how USF’s offense will respond to Williams’ absence — he leads the team in Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating (EvanMiya) and makes the offense go as the floor general (team-high 28.8% assist rate). His absence could come at the perfect time for the Cougs.
Washington State vs San Francisco same-game parlay (SGP)
Washington State +5.5
Under 148.5
I’m reticent to play an Under in the WCC Championship as teams have combined to go 5-0 O/U through the first three rounds. That being said, I can’t help but think that there’s some value in the Under given the uncertainty of USF’s offensive outlook sans Williams.
The Dons have been terrific defensively, ranking 27th in adjusted efficiency since February 1 (BartTorvik). Chris Gerlufsen is a fantastic coach and I’d expect him to maximize his team’s strengths by using their strong defense to slow down a red-hot Wazzu offense that has scored 90+ points in three consecutive games.
The Cougars thrive when they space teams out (36.5% from 3-point range) and find open cuts to the rim (32nd in near-proximity field goal percentage per Haslametrics). USF’s defense is elite at defending the arc (third nationally in 3-point percentage allowed at 28.2%) and is a long, athletic, well-coached defense that theoretically should cut off some of those cuts to the paint and slow this game down. Plug your nose and take the Under.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Washington State vs San Francisco odds
Washington State vs San Francisco live odds
Washington State vs San Francisco opening odds
- Spread: Washington State +3.5 | San Francisco -3.5
- Moneyline: Washington State +127 | San Francisco -148
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 | Under 147.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Washington State vs San Francisco betting trend to know
David Riley-coached teams are 4-1 ATS as an underdog in the postseason. Find more college basketball betting trends for Washington State vs. San Francisco.
How to watch Washington State vs San Francisco
| Location | Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Sunday, 3-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Washington State vs San Francisco key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
