Having been blown out twice in their last three games, the Virginia Cavaliers hope a return home against a team they’ve dominated can get them back on track when they host the Louisville Cardinals.
Louisville has had its own problems of late — losing four of its last five — and has also lost 21 straight away from home. The Cardinals have dropped nine of their last 10 to Virginia, so it's easy to see why they’re massive 14.5-point underdogs in the college basketball odds.
Should you be thinking upset at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville tonight? Read below for my free college basketball picks for Louisville vs. Virginia.
Louisville vs Virginia best odds
Louisville vs Virginia picks and predictions
The Virginia Cavaliers have just three losses on the year, but when they lose, they lose big. Two games after getting crushed by Memphis 77-54, Virginia got thumped 76-54 by Notre Dame.
They’ve been far better at home, going 8-0 and winning by an average of 23.6 points per game. Save for a two-point win over Northeastern, the Cavs have won the rest of their home games by double digits. Scoring is not its forte, however, as Virginia checks in at 339th in the nation at 65.7 points per game. Its success stems from a suffocating defense, which holds teams to 56.2 ppg, the second-best mark in the NCAA.
Defense is not Louisville’s calling card, as it's giving up 75.4 ppg, which ranks a lowly 283rd in the college hoops. All four of their losses during this five-game stretch have seen the Louisville Cardinals surrender at least 75 points per game.
Barring a minor miracle, this seems like a Virginia blowout, and the books are leaning that way as well, pegging the Cavaliers as massive -1,600 favorites on the moneyline.
Louisville has been held Under 68 points just twice this season, with each of its last nine games producing a total of at least 138 points. Virginia is averaging 70.6 points in its 10 wins, and I think these teams comfortably clear the total.
My best bet: Over 128.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Louisville vs Virginia same-game parlay
Over 127.5 points
Louisville team total Over 56.5
I mentioned the Cardinals’ ability to score despite the losses, and that’s what I'm counting on here as I add on their scoring total to this same-game parlay.
An encouraging sign for the Cardinals is the last outing from two of their top players in the loss to Kentucky — the highest-ranked school they’ve played this season.
Skyy Clark bounced back from his only two single-digit scoring games of the season to pile up 20 points and five assists against UK. Meanwhile, forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield picked up his third straight double-double — going for 16 points and 11 rebounds — while shooting a perfect 8-for-8 from the field against the Wildcats.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Louisville vs Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread started as low as 12 points, but that was early afternoon Tuesday. Since then, it's continually climbed, with every book sitting Virginia -14 at the lowest and some at 15.
Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark with the spread. Virginia is 7-6-0 against the spread this year, while the Cardinals are 5-7-0.
As for the total, this line was seen as low as 126.5 points but has since moved up to a high of 128.5. The Under is a whopping 2-8-0 in Virginia games this year, though its loss to Notre Dame went Over, breaking a four-game Under streak.
Ditto the Cardinals, who broke a four-game Under streak with their game against Kentucky. On the year, the Over is 6-6-0.
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Louisville vs Virginia betting trend to know
Virginia has won the last seven head-to-head matchups. Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Virginia.
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Louisville vs Virginia game info
| Location: | John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 3, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Louisville vs Virginia key injuries
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