The Auburn Tigers face the Florida Gators for the second time this season when these SEC power programs collide in Saturday’s national semifinal in San Antonio.
The Gators got the best of the Tigers in their first meeting back on February 8, with Florida prevailing 90-81 as an 11-point underdog inside Neville Arena.
At the time, it was just the second loss for Auburn on the season (the other loss coming to Duke), and it snapped its 14-game winning streak. That game also served as a jumping-off point for Florida, which has lost just once since that win, bringing a 15-1 SU streak into the Final Four rematch.
That’s enough to convince oddsmakers to set Florida as the favorite, marking just the fourth time Auburn has been an underdog this season.
When it comes to “live dogs” in March Madness picks, the Tigers take the cake. Here are three reasons why Auburn will beat Florida in the Final Four this Saturday.
Three reasons why Auburn will beat Florida
1. Broome Ball
The Florida Gators have a tremendous defense and a deep frontcourt of talented big men, but it hasn’t stopped them from getting pushed around inside during the NCAA Tournament.
Florida allowed 38 points in the paint to Texas Tech, 30 PITP to Maryland, and 32 PITP to UConn in the past three games. The Gators are 114th in protecting the rim, according to ShotQualityBets, and ranked 79th in PITP allowed on the year.
They now face the most consistent interior scoring threat: Auburn Tigers center Johni Broome.
Broome, who scored 18 points on 8-for-19 shooting versus Florida back in February, has been a force inside the past two tournament games, and it looks like he’s avoided any serious injuries after a scare in the Elite Eight.
He scored 25 points in 29 minutes against Michigan State (despite missing time due to injury) and dropped 22 points against Michigan’s towering frontcourt in the Sweet 16. Broome is the beating heart of an Auburn attack that ranks 13th in finishing at the rim and 35th in the half-court set.
If Broome can muscle his way to the hoop for high percentage looks, it will slow down the tempo of the game and force the Gators to start their possessions from the inbounds rather than running out in transition and pumping up the pace.
2. Tigers Defense
Auburn sputtered at the end of SEC play and got tripped up in the conference tournament due to its defense. The Tigers, who were among the defensive elite all season, were giving up looks inside and sending foes to the foul line far too often.
You could even say that carried over to the start of the NCAA Tournament, with Alabama State and Creighton able to put up points against the Tigers. However, Auburn seemed to throw the switch in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
The Tigers held Michigan and Michigan State to a collective 43-for-123 from the field (34.9%), including 30% success from beyond the arc.
Patrolling the perimeter isn’t lost on Bruce Pearl’s players in this rematch with UF, as the Gators knocked down 13 triples in their upset win over Auburn in SEC play.
On the year, the Tigers rank eighth in 3-point defense thanks to the length of their starting guards. Auburn’s backcourt runs 6-foot-4, 6-foot-6, and 6-foot-7, with the ability to close out quickly and get a hand up on shooters. Meanwhile, the Gators starting guards run as tall as 6-foot-4.
3. Tahaad Pettiford
So much is made of Florida’s depth, but Auburn has very capable contributors coming off the bench as well. None is more explosive than Tahaad Pettiford.
The freshman guard has been electric in the NCAA Tournament, putting himself on the radar of several NBA scouts. He earned All-South Region honors for his efforts in the Big Dance so far, averaging 17.3 points, 3.5 assists, and 3.0 rebounds in four tourney outings.
Pettiford brings energy off the bench and gives Auburn another gear, especially if the Gators go small and look to push the pace.
He didn’t have a great day in the first meeting with UF back in February, shooting 4-for 11-from the floor, but he still finished with 14 points thanks to making 4-of-5 from the charity stripe. Pettiford doesn’t allow for a scoring lull when Bruce Pearl gives his starters a blow, providing instant offense and a one-on-one option when things break down and the shot clock dwindles.
If there is an X-factor in this Final Four game, Pettiford is it.
