The West Region of the NCAA Tournament bracket is rich in coaching experience. Just look at Thursday’s Round of 64 matchup between the No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks and the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks.
A Bill Self/John Calipari showdown is usually reserved for the Final Four, but with the Jayhawks failing to meet their preseason hype and the Razorbacks running hot heading into the postseason, we get this colossal coaching clash in the opening round.
Tonight's Arkansas vs. Kansas predictions and March Madness picks like the Hogs to keep this closer than oddsmakers expect.
Who will win Arkansas vs Kansas?
This is a tight contest to call. Kansas is the slight favorite, with an implied win probability of around 68%, but Arkansas is playing its best basketball of the year and could very much put a nail in KU’s disappointing season in Providence. I’ll lean Razorbacks.
Arkansas vs Kansas prediction
My best bet: Arkansas +4.5 (-110 at bet365)
I featured this game in my favorite March Madness underdogs, and I’m not alone in backing the Arkansas Razorbacks, as my Covers colleague Rohit Ponnaiya also likes the points with Arkansas.
The Hogs have injuries to keep an eye on, with junior forward Adou Thiero (15.6 ppg) doubtful for the tournament opener due to a knee issue that cost him the last six games. Arkansas will, however, have freshman guard Boogie Fland (15.1 ppg) back in action after he missed 15 games with a hand injury. Just how much he plays on Thursday remains to be seen.
Despite missing those two key contributors, the Razorbacks battled their way into a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas closed the SEC campaign by winning four of its final five regular-season games before going 1-1 in the conference tournament — a 4-2-1 ATS clip in that span.
If the Kansas Jayhawks had shown just a fraction of that same fight, it might not be sitting with a No. 7 seed. The Jayhawks were the preseason favorites to win the national title, but a lack of cohesion on offense has stunted KU’s attack, leading to a 6-7 SU mark in the back end of Big 12 play and an early exit from the conference tournament.
These programs show similar traits and metrics: Ultra-talented teams with big athletic players anchored in defense.
Neither side is outstanding on offense, especially from beyond the arc, which means less chance of extended runs and plenty of rim scoring. Both teams push the tempo in transition and attack the basket. Kansas averages 37 points in the paint (28th), while Arkansas puts up 34.8 PITP (69th).
The Hogs have the size to clog up the interior, and the shot swatters (5.6 blocks per game) to push Kansas away from the basket. The Jayhawks don’t have the outside threats to hurt Arkansas from 3-point range, and we’ve seen KU settle for mid-range shots. The Jayhawks lack that knockout punch from the perimeter, which will allow the Razorbacks to hang around.
Game models also call for a tight contest, ranging from a 1-point finish to as high as six in favor of Kansas. Most projections sit between three and four points, with my number at KU by 3.5 points. I'll bet the underdog and enjoy the ride.
Arkansas vs Kansas same-game parlay (SGP)
Arkansas +4.5
Under 145.5
Johnell Davis 10+ points
Arkansas can match Kansas’ size, defense, and coaching. Neither team gives an inch in a very close game.
With no outside pop and both teams trying to score inside, I don’t see this score getting too high. Game models sit low on this outcome, with some projected totals at 142 points.
Johnell Davis is the Hogs’ primary scorer in this game, with Thiero out and Fland limited. He’s picked up the slack on offense during those injuries, scoring double digits in 12 of his last 14 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your March Madness ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 15+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Arkansas vs Kansas odds
Arkansas vs Kansas live odds
Arkansas vs Kansas opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas +4.5 | Kansas -4.5
- Moneyline: Arkansas +175 | Kansas -210
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 | Under 145.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Arkansas vs Kansas betting trend to know
Arkansas has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games (+6.80 units/48% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Kansas.
How to watch Arkansas vs Kansas
| Region | West |
| Location | Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Arkansas vs Kansas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
