We have a great one this afternoon between North Carolina and Mississippi in South Region action.
A controversial pick to even be here, the Tar Heels certainly looked the part in their opening First Four game in Dayton. North Carolina never trailed, led by 40 at one point, and quickly dispatched San Diego State by 27 points. It extends a recent stretch of play for UNC that includes only two losses in their last ten games — both to Duke.
With a good run of form, my North Carolina vs. Mississippi predictions and March Madness picks favor the lower-seeded Tar Heels as the favorite on Friday, March 21.
Who will win North Carolina vs Mississippi?
North Carolina. These two teams have played vastly differently over the last month, and I'm inclined to go with the hot hand in this spot. I also don't hate that the Tar Heels have already played a game. We see teams advance from this seed line every year to win a few games, and there's a reason for that.
North Carolina vs Mississippi prediction
My best bet: North Carolina moneyline (-130 at bet365)
The first bet I made when the brackets came out? North Carolina to make the Sweet 16 at 7-1. I guess you could say I saw at least some of this coming and it seems like most people are coming around to that line of thinking. Why'd I make that bet? It's simple because, over the last month, North Carolina has been playing better and more efficient basketball than a lot of teams in the field. I'm grabbing them to get the win as my best bet.
Since February 1, North Carolina has played like a Top-20 team. Exactly 20th, ranking 11th in offensive efficiency and 64th on the other side of the ball. Just as crucial during that stretch is the Mississippi Rebels ranking 40th nationally. While one team has one direction, the other has gone a different one altogether. Mississippi has defended particularly poorly at an 84th-best rate in the country, which would make them look more like an NIT team than a tournament team.
Naysayers may say that some of this reflects a weak ACC and a historically strong SEC. I'd retort by saying these numbers are adjusted for competition but also that each saying any blanket statements like that is a fool's errand this time of year. Even out-of-conference, the Tar Heels proved themselves against Michigan State, Kansas, and Florida — they couldn't get a result. The Heels were in all three of those games only to fall within the less minute. That's more unlucky than anything, and they've flipped some of that poor luck to close the season.
There are clear attack points for North Carolina here.
Ole Miss switches defensively more than any time in college basketball. Doing that against North Carolina is risky. It can get you in one-on-one mismatches and isolation scoring with RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, and Elliot Cadeau, the last of which has played his best basketball recently. The Tar Heels shooting is responsible for their late-season narrative reversal, but Cadeau's play, in particular, has made them intriguing. Over the last few games, he's proven to be at least a capable three-point shooter, which has made teams think twice about sagging off him. That's opened up the offense for everyone else.
I like North Carolina here. To beat the Tar Heels, you really need to overwhelm them with size down low, and Ole Miss doesn't have that. I don't think the Rebels can score enough.
North Carolina vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)
North Carolina moneyline
Elliott Cadeau Over 0.5 threes
RJ Davis Over 17.5 points
After talking about him above, I'm forced to include Elliott Cadeau in this same-game parlay. He's played with so much confidence over the past few games that the plus-money value to make a three is too good to pass up. Cadeau will enter this game, having made threes in back-to-back games for the first time this season. His increased volume due to making more makes this a good addition.
Lastly, we'll finish things off with RJ Davis hitting the 18-point mark. This is highly correlated because RJ Davis's scoring is usually pretty good evidence that North Carolina is winning. I think he should be able to routinely exploit some individual mismatches and take advantage of the Rebels' allowing 1.02 points per possession on dribble jumpers against Top 50 opponents this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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North Carolina vs Mississippi odds
North Carolina vs Mississippi live odds
North Carolina vs Mississippi opening odds
- Spread: North Carolina -1.5 | Mississippi +1.5
- Moneyline: North Carolina -120 | Mississippi +110
- Over/Under: Over 156 | Under 156
Odds courtesy of bet365
North Carolina vs Mississippi betting trend to know
North Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 27 of their last 39 games (+11.95 Units / 3% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Mississippi.
How to watch North Carolina vs Mississippi
| Region | South |
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
North Carolina vs Mississippi key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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